YouGov has just released a European Election voting intention poll and it has Labour in third
behind UKIP. The poll has the Tories on 26, UKIP 18, Labour on 16, the Lib Dems 15, the Greens 10 and the BNP on 5. However, if those not certain to vote are included the numbers become the Tories 37, Labour 21, Lib Dem 19 and UKIP 8. So, who can get their vote out is going to be key. It is hard to imagine that Labour supporters are going to feel particularly enthusiastic about voting for their party in the current circumstances.
Obviously, what Labour gets and where it finishes is the politically most important factor of the results. But if the Tories score below 30, they received 27 percent of the vote in these elections in 2004, then there will be some disquiet in Conservative circles.