A new ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tory lead at nine points, 38 to 29. However, both main parties have fallen back since the last ICM poll which had the Tories on 39 and Labour on 31. This new ICM poll has the Lib Dems on 23, up four since the last ICM poll and three since last month’s Guardian / ICM poll.
On a uniform national swing, this poll would leave the Tories 20 seats short of an overall majority. But given the Tory advantage in the marginals and the unwinding of anti-Tory tactical voting, a nine point Tory lead should actually produce a decent Tory majority.
As always, we should remember that this is only one poll. But it is worth watching to see if the good Lib Dem polling we have seen recently continues in the next few polls.