Last night’s Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election played out in a predictable fashion overall. After Stephen Phillips resigned in anguish over ‘irreconcilable policy differences’ regarding the government’s Brexit stance, the Tories comfortably clung onto the seat — with their candidate Caroline Johnson winning over 50 pc of the vote.
It was a good result, too, for Ukip — in an area where over 62 pc of voters backed Brexit in the referendum. After coming third there in the general election they won second place this time around. However, it will be encouraging to May that, despite this, Ukip’s vote share did actually decrease marginally — falling from 15.7 pc to 13.5 pc. Although the party had hoped to increase its vote share, Paul Nuttall branded the result as a ‘really good way to get my leadership off the ground’.
The surprise of the night came from Labour. In another sign that the Lib Dem’s strategy is cutting through to Remain voters, Tim Farron’s party increased their vote share from 5.7 pc to 11 pc, coming in third. This meant Labour — who came second there in the general election — were pushed into fourth, with their vote share falling from 17 pc to 10 pc. The result comes as YouGov report that Labour voting intention is now at its lowest since 2009.
Labour voting intention hits lowest level since September 2009
CON – 42
LAB – 25
LD – 11
UKIP – 12
OTH -10
(4-5 Dec)https://t.co/hRvwynrcD8 pic.twitter.com/Qpx7lyN4dP— YouGov (@YouGov) December 9, 2016
While the party did manage to cling onto their deposit in Sleaford — after losing it last week in the Richmond by-election — it is a dismal showing for Labour. What’s most worrying is that they’ve lost votes in both a constituency that backed Remain and a constituency that backed Leave. The party has struggled to come up with a coherent position on the EU since the Brexit vote came in — and as a result they now risk turning off voters from both camps.
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