Labour should be cautious about celebrating the fall in net migration

How can you miss over 300,000 migrants? This morning the Office for National Statistics revised up its previous record high net migration figure to 906,000 meaning that since 2021, 307,000 more migrants are in the country than the ONS previously knew about.

So, has Britain turned the corner on migration? There has been a 20 per cent fall in net migration in the year to June compared to the 12 months before, according to figures published this morning by the ONS. Some 1.2 million people migrated to the UK compared with 1.3 million the year before. Meanwhile, 479,000 left the UK, up from 414,000 the previous year. 

The fall, the ONS says, is mainly down to fewer dependants being brought over by migrants coming to the UK to study. There are also signs that fewer migrants are coming over to work in the first place. The ONS acknowledges that ‘policy changes from earlier this year’ are ‘partly reflected’ in the figures. The rise in emigration was driven by the post-pandemic student cohort graduating and going home. 

But what’s startling about the figures are the revisions to previous years’ data. Net migration is now thought to have peaked at 906,000 in the year to June 2023. In May, the ONS said the peak was 764,000 in 2022. In total, the changes mean 307,000 more migrants in the country than the ONS previously thought. 

Of the 1.2 million migrants who came to Britain in the year to June, nearly all of them (86 per cent) were from outside the EU. Ten per cent were from Europe and a further 5 per cent were British nationals. Of the one million migrants who came to Britain from outside the EU, some 17 per cent were children. 

India provided the largest chunk coming for work (116,000) and study (127,000). The number of non-EU dependant children of parents on study visas was 80,000, down from 115,000 in 2023. This suggests the previous governments visa clampdown has had an effect. However, dependants of those coming here for work was up from 166,000 to 233,000, although the ONS say more recent data suggests this number is beginning to fall.

So, while the Home Office is likely to celebrate net migration coming down by a fifth, it can’t really do so with any vigour given the staggering size of the revision to last year’s figure.

Who’s to say that today’s numbers won't be revised up by an equally large amount in a few months’ time to the point that the figures actually appear flat?

Just as you think ONS statisticians will surely run out of ways to revise their methodology, another 307,000 migrants are found. If these figures do anything, they simply reiterate that counting how many people enter and leave the country appears to be a lot more difficult than we’d like to think.

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