Let battle commence…

To most of the cabinet, it does not matter if Theresa May announces a timetable for her resignation: they can’t see her lasting until the summer and the race for her successor is now on. Coffees are being bought, dinners laid on, allies sounded out — all in expectation of a contest being called at any moment.

This time, the leading candidates hope to be ready with campaign managers, teams, manifestos and more. Even those holding back are doing so strategically. And given that this is the Conservative party, there will be blood.

If there is a general election this year, Tories are adamant that May won’t lead them into it. ‘There is a strong sense that she shouldn’t lead us into an election anytime, anywhere, any place,’ explains a member of government. There’s talk of fast-tracking the Tory leadership procedure, finishing the hustings in the space of a week. Under current rules, the membership would then pick between the final two — but time constraints might see MPs decide or the 124,000 members consulted in an online ballot.

They’ll be spoiled for choice. Half the cabinet are expected to try their luck, while a cluster of less experienced candidates will argue there’s a clear case for a fresh face moving the party on to a new chapter. They might run not to win but to secure a promotion — although even this is a gamble. ‘Less than ten votes is more of a humiliation than a career boost,’ warns one MP.

For now, stealth is all. Each candidate needs to build support without being seen to do so. No one wants to be the frontrunner in a Tory leadership contest, as it places a target on you. Just ask Sajid Javid.