Lib Dems push the boundaries

That the Liberal Democrats might try to scupper the boundary reforms if they don’t get their way on Lords reform has been the talk of the tearooms in Westminster for months. But today the threat comes to the fore as Nick Clegg’s departing head of strategy Richard Reeves warns the Independent that there will be ‘consequences’ if Tory MPs try to block reform of the upper chamber by voting down the Government’s programme motion for debating the legislation. This is what he told the newspaper:

‘There would be broader consequences for the Government’s programme, particularly around political and parliamentary reform. The idea that a failure to deliver a government commitment on Lords reform would be consequence-free is for the birds.’

His threat focuses on the boundary review, from which the Tories will benefit and the Liberal Democrats will not. But the Lib Dems, he told the newspaper, would not walk out of the Coalition over the issue. That sounds wise: it’s not difficult to imagine the glee with which David Cameron could taunt his ex-Coalition partners in the Commons. He could point out that they stuck by the Conservatives over tuition fees, welfare cuts and the NHS, which have given their grassroots far more angst than the Lords, but then departed over a constitutional issue that few outside the Parliamentary estate understand or care about. Stewart Jackson, who makes little effort to veil his dislike for the second Coalition party, tweeted this morning:

But if the Lib Dems aren’t going to make the issue a deal breaker, then their threat sounds a little empty. If you don’t do as we want on Lords reform, then we are going to be very, very upset is the message. Many of the Tory rebels might like that idea even more. They are in the mood for a scrap with the Liberal Democrats, and as I blogged on Wednesday, are very keen to prevent David Cameron ‘bending over backwards’ for Nick Clegg.

One of the things rattling the Libs at the moment is that Cameron isn’t making a great deal of effort – public or private – to force his MPs to stick to the Coalition line. The whips have been approaching would-be rebels with some polling from Andrew Cooper which shows the public dislikes disunited parties to try to shame them into behaving on Tuesday. But this is hardly the violent whipping operation that we saw over the backbench vote on Europe last year. Then MPs saw real arm-twisting threats which involved mistresses and skeletons in the cupboards, not waving a piece of paper vaguely at a backbencher before casually asking if they’ll still be rebelling. It is going to be difficult for Cameron to say ‘I tried everything, Nick’ on Tuesday when the tellers declare the result of the vote.