General elections are decided in the marginals; it was polling from them that led Brown to call off the election in 2007. The economic conditions in these seats are going to have a disproportionate impact on the election result. The Independent reports today that unemployment is rising faster in Labour-held marginals than in the country as a whole:
“Some 59 out of Labour’s 115 most marginal seats witnessed increases of more than 418 claimants, the average for the country. In total, 225 Labour seats, 64 per cent of the party’s Westminster total, had above-average unemployment rises, compared with 21 per cent of Conservative and 22 per cent of Liberal Democrats.
Marginal seats with the highest new claimant counts include Halifax – hit by the banking crisis and where Labour has a majority of 3,417 – with an increase of 931. In Crawley, West Sussex, where Labour has a majority of just 37, unemployment claimants rose by 837 in the past year, or 107.2 per cent. Other seats at risk with fast-rising unemployment are clustered around the Midlands and the M4 corridor, including Burton, Gloucester, Milton Keynes, South Swindon and North Swindon.”
Reading this you can see why so many Labour MPs are keen to bail out Jaguar and Land Rover. This recession is going to hit places that have enjoyed a generation of growth, making the effect of a spike in unemployment more pronounced.
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