Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Marriage tax break revolt size could hinge on newly-knighted Sir Edward Leigh

The 42 ‘Alternative Queen’s Speech’ bills laid by Peter Bone and Philip Hollobone are very useful for the Lib Dems, as they can use them to argue that this is what a Tory majority government would look like. A source close to Clegg says they serve as an example ‘for any members of the public who want to see what having Liberal Democrats in government will get you’: i.e. stopping the Tory right from getting its way on legislation. The party’s press office has started a Twitter hashtag called #toryqueensspeech and is retweeting some of the best suggestions. It’s almost as if the Lib Dems never dabbled with potty and unrealistic ideas…

I hear that the Tory whips are fuming, both about this and Tim Loughton’s amendment to the Finance Bill, which Osborne had expressly asked the socially Conservative wing of the party not to push as he would introduce the married couples’ tax break in his own time. Loughton’s colleagues are now in an awkward position. One tells me: ‘We took the Chancellor at his word, but because one of our MPs hasn’t kept his word, we now have to decide whether to vote for it or not.’

The key to the size of the rebellion on this amendment is Edward Leigh. His 2011 attempt at amending that year’s Finance Bill failed, and he will need to decide whether to support the proposal because he believes it is the right one, or vote against it because he wants to back the Chancellor. Colleagues calling for the policy will probably follow his lead. He has just been knighted, so may be in a generous mood. The whips are also reported to have used him as a go-between to try to persuade Loughton to back down, so the chances are that he could stay loyal, in which case this attempt to embarrass the leadership will be a damp squib.

Backbenchers are now being asked by the whips to ‘hold on’ until 2014. How successful they are depends in part on whether the current programme of making MPs feel loved has its desired effect.

Comments