In the run-up to the Greek election, European figures were adamant that there wasn’t as much to worry about as people thought. They argued that Syriza wouldn’t come close to winning a majority and that it would have to do a coalition deal with Potami who would end up moderating its demands. This complacency was misplaced. Syriza came within a whisker of a majority and then formed a coalition with right wing nationalists, the Greek Independents, who agree with Syriza on very little other than the need to end EU-imposed austerity.
Politically, it is very hard to see how the Greek situation can be resolved. Syriza’s entire rationale as a political movement is to renegotiate the terms of the Greek bailout. But northern European politicians, led by Angela Merkel, fear that any concessions to Athens would both boost other anti-austerity parties in southern Europe such as Podemos in Spain and boost parties of the radical right in their own backyard.
One consequence of all this for Britain is that Merkel is now more loath to lose Britain from the EU than she was before. She knows that Britain leaving would shift the EU’s centre of gravity even further towards the dirigiste south.
Add to this European policymakers’ worries about France and the prospect of a truly horrendous presidential election result in 2017 and this presents Cameron with an opportunity to secure a better deal in the renegotiation than is generally believed possible. But, if re-elected, he has to be prepared to take advantage of this moment. This will require a willingness to indicate that he will walk away if he doesn’t get what he asks for.
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