The semi-regular speeches given by the heads of Britain’s intelligence services are always described as a ‘rare intervention’, and yesterday it was the turn of Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, to issue one of these periodic warnings about the safety of the nation.
McCallum noted that although his favourite subjects (terrorism, Russia, Iran and China) have featured in prior ‘rare interventions’, some things have changed. The ‘shifts underneath present the most complex and interconnected threat environment we’ve ever seen’, he said. We are living in a more dangerous world and our enemies are working together. They share the same goal: bringing more murder and mayhem to Britain.
We must not forget the spectre of Islamist terrorism
Did you see a story like this recently? ‘Explosion at military weapons factory in…’ Unexplained explosions, fires and bombings are becoming a worrying phenomenon across Europe. There’s even been the recent attempted assassination, reportedly, of a CEO of a German arms manufacturer.
You may have guessed what I think links all of these things: Russia. Though these attacks are usually executed by low-level criminal types, the mark of their Russian masters seems blatantly obvious. Russia stages these attacks to disrupt western arms deliveries to Ukraine, and to put the proverbial cat among the pigeons.
Paradoxically, except for the occasional recognition from McCallum and his kind, it’s not believed to be in the interests of western states to acknowledge these acts of war. In the name of ‘escalation management’, it’s thought that western weapons in Ukrainian hands would better do the talking. Stop the attacks if you can. Arrest the perpetrators. And then keep as quiet as the law allows about the whole thing.
What is perhaps less-widely known is a similar Iranian effort to deploy the world’s groaning supply of criminal riff-raff to murder the country’s enemies. In America, it’s generally understood that dissidents like Masih Alinejad are under constant threat of Iranian assassination from foreign gangsters. In Britain the threat is the same. The most high-profile efforts in recent years were a series of ultimately unsuccessful Iranian bids to kill the people behind the Iran International TV channel (although one presenter was stabbed, he survived, and the station moved country).
The most effective terrorist groups seek out state backing. The Taliban has been a client of the Pakistani state since its foundation almost 30 years ago. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen could not exist without Iranian backing. The same is true with criminal gangs. The best money and most consistent work might now be in working as contract killers for foreign governments.
We must not forget the spectre of Islamist terrorism, which still takes up most of MI5’s time. McCallum says it’s about three-quarters of all counter-terror work, with the far-right the other quarter (something media coverage does not reflect). McCallum notes that since March 2017, the authorities here have stopped 43 ‘late-stage attack plots’. These are bombings, ram-attacks, mass stabbings and gun violence. And those are just the ones in advanced stages of planning. Goodness knows how many were begun but intercepted early.
The withdrawal of Nato forces from Afghanistan and the collapse of the Afghan government in 2021 left a vacuum eagerly exploited by the Islamic State. Isis-KP, as its Afghan detachment is called, has been operating openly in the country for almost a decade, and has notched up many successful attacks, including an especially savage and successful massacre at the Crocus City Hall concert venue in Russia in March this year. Before that, there was a huge double bombing in Iran in January. I fear these kinds of attacks will become more common.
It’s a dangerous world. Let’s hope our politicians and our overburdened, unsuccessful state can buck the trends of the past two decades and face it down. Then McCallum’s interventions really can be rare.
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