Mid-Term Myth-Making

Not long until Labor Day and the semi-official kick-off for the mid-term elections. Which also means that the papers will be stuffed with predictions that the losses in the mid-terms show that Obama is doomed and so on. Whether one cares for the President or not, this is simply not the case. Happily Norm Ornstein and Alan Abramowitz have launched a pre-emptive strike against some of the plausible-but-false notions that we can expect to see plenty of for the rest of the year.

Specifically: 1. Mid-terms don’t predict future election results. 2. Anti-incumbency is vastly over-rated. 90% of incumbents will win. 3. The President’s “message” is not going to have much of an impact. 4. It’s not always all about the economy, though this year it might be. 5. Mid-terms momentum is easily squandered and doesn’t always translate into a mandate.

Of these 3.