Mini Election: Nicola Blackwood on fighting to hold one of the most marginal seats

If the Liberal Democrats stand any chance of making gains at the Conservatives expense, then Nicola Blackwood is precisely the sort of MP they need to depose. She won her seat, Oxford West and Abingdon, with a gossamer majority of 176 and its in the top three Lib Dem targets. Perhaps for that reason she has been in campaigning mode ever since she was elected.

Given Blackwood’s majority, few in 2010 would have expected her to hold onto the seat this time around. But since then, the vote of her main opposition has collapsed. I joined Nicola on the doorstep this weekend to find out how her re-election campaign is going and how optimistic she about her chances.

Surveying her constituents

On Saturday morning, Nicola and her band of Conservative activists took to the doorsteps of Wootton, a small village near Abingdon, to carry out a round of ‘survey canvassing’  — knocking on doors, delivering a short survey and chatting through issues. For those who were in (many still in dressing gowns), the canvassers returned half an hour later to pick up the results. Otherwise, there is a freepost address. Although polling day is still a long way off, Blackwood says this is all part of her re-election efforts:

‘We’ve been in full on election mode for quite some time. We’ve been canvassing three times a week and twice on Saturdays for many months. This is not just so we can have the right information for election day, it’s also so I can get the right information in order to be able to do my job as an MP.’

Nicola Blackwood and Conservative volunteers begin survery canvassing.

Most of the residents Blackwood spoke to were elderly and switched on. No one was hostile to her — although the Conservative rosette was absent — and the majority happily took a survey. On average, her campaigns receives a 10-15 per cent return rate. This weekend, it was much higher.

The voters who wanted to chat raised the usual mixture of local and national issues. One elderly gentlemen is was looking for help in chasing up war medals from his time in the navy (1941-1947). After showing her the medals and associated paperwork, Blackwood promised to follow up the case in Westminster.

A resident of Wootton explains his war medals lee with Nicola Blackwood MP.

Another Wootton resident was concerned about the Labour threat to the NHS. ‘I wish David Cameron would speak louder about the NHS’, she says. ‘Well, did you see Prime Minister’s Questions last week?” responded Nicola, pointing out that David Cameron is a vocal supporter of the health service. ‘He’s just too gentlemanly,’ said the resident. Nicola promised that as election day nears,  the Prime Minister will mostly definitely be speaking louder.

On the stump, Blackwood finds it is the economic recovery that keeps voters on side:

‘We’ve had a very good response to the long-term economic plan. We’ve had a 76 per cent fall in youth unemployment, we’ve had a 63 per cent increase in apprenticeships and what I don’t want to see and our local residents don’t want to see is that put at risk at the next election.’ 

Roads, housing and floods

While the economy and NHS are on the minds of residents in Oxford West and Abingdon, there are plenty of recurring local concerns. The Oxford Green Belt is a tricky one. Blackwood’s seat is the most expensive in the country for housing while new affordable housing is in short supply. Blackwood made a decision to back a green belt review — something that is not universally popular. Her Liberal Democrat opponent Layla Moran is opposing the review but ‘it’s a decision I took because it’s the right thing to do’, says Blackwood.

Tied into new housing, the road network in Oxford West has also been in desperate need of improvements. After decades of congestion, £50 million was designated in the 2014 Autumn Statement for improvements to the A34. Like the rest of Osborne’s statement, pork barrel politics were clearly at work. This is a seat where the Conservatives are doing all they can to hold onto it.

The area has also suffered badly from flooding. The village of South Hinksey in particular risked being entirely flooded last year — until a call from the Policy Minister Oliver Letwin led to the Army being sent in and the whole village was barricaded. The residents threw a tea party for then-defence secretary Philip Hammond to say thank you. She has campaigned for better permanent defences and was rewarded with £42 million in the Autumn Statement for the Oxford & Abingdon Flood Defence Scheme.

Marginal wars

Despite all of her efforts and help from the Treasury, victory in Oxford West and Abingdon is not guaranteed for the Conservatives. It’s the tenth most marginal seat in the country and high on the target list for the Liberal Democrats.

Although the former MP Dr Evan Harris remains popular with parts of the student population, he is not standing again. Following the nationwide tend, it looks likely that the drop in the Liberal Democrat vote will ensure Blackwood holds the seat. Lord Ashcroft’s polling has suggested there will be a swing towards the Conservatives in May:

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Blackwood isn’t taking this for granted. She is canvassing three times a week, twice on Saturdays. Conservative HQ are sending in frequent delegations from #RoadTrip2015 to help campaign. On the doorstep, convincing sceptical Liberal Democrat voters is the biggest challenge but one Blackwood is tackling. By focusing on the core issues in the constituency — instead of building a media profile — she is hoping that her track record will persuade those still sceptical of voting Tory.

The quiet one

Unlike many of the 2010 intake of Conservatives (and her predecessor in the seat) Blackwood has not dived into the media spotlight. Aside from her work on the Home Affairs Select Committee, she has not gone out of her way to popup in newspapers or on Question Time. Was she unlucky or was it part of her re-election plan?

‘I made a conscious decision that I wanted to focus very much on fighting for my constituency,’ she said. ‘I wanted to get to the 8 May and know I had done everything I could to fight for this seat; that I wouldn’t have any regrets that I hadn’t focused enough on it.’

So if she is successful in her re-election campaign, might Blackwood spread her wings in Parliament and become more prominent in Westminster? ‘I really hope that would be the case — yes.’