The big Budget news tonight is that the personal allowance will rise to £9,205. This is a larger increase than expected and, intriguingly, will be paid for — in part — by a couple of billion more of spending cuts. So, the Lib Dems see considerable progress on their main budget priority, raising the income tax threshold to £10,000, but this will be partially funded by something Tory MPs have been calling for, more spending cuts.
It also appears that the coalition will further increase the pace of its corporation tax cuts as well as introducing a new higher rate of stamp duty for £2 million plus houses. There’ll also be a slew of anti-avoidance measures to accompany the reduction in the 50p rate.
One of the big Budget issues on which we remain unclear is what will be done on child benefit. I still think, as I said a few weeks ago, that the most likely outcome is that Osborne will simply raise the threshold at which you lose it to £50,000. But he will be acutely aware that the child benefit issue will be the big Budget story for several traditionally Tory supporting papers.
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