The case for Gordon Brown going to the country in October just keeps getting stronger. A poll in tomorrow’s Sun puts Labour on 42%–8 points ahead of the Tories, an increase in the lead of 3 points since the start of the month. (The indispensable Conservative Home has details). While the Sunday Times reports that Labour’s internal polling has them up by a massive 14% if the election were to be held now.
I’ve always been sceptical about the likelihood of Brown calling an election so soon as it undercuts one of his key assets, the perception that he is a serious man who is just interested in getting things done. But the current slew of policy announcements—deep cleaning of hospitals, clampdowns on teenagers drinking at home—all seem designed for short-term political gain and to put him in a position to go to the country.
On the other hand, there is still the EU Constitution lurking in the background and the Tories do only need a very small swing, 1.6
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