Seventeen Days that Shook the World? Not so fast, my friend! Hosni Mubarak’s speech this evening was many things but it wasn’t much of a resignation statement. Mostly, it was a nationalist plea for Middle Egypt’s sympathy vote. Presenting himself as father of the nation – including his “children” gathered in Tahrir Square and in cities across the country – Mubarak’s pitch seemed more likely to appeal to that generation’s parents.
How many Egyptian youths are really preoccupied with the moment the Egyptian flag was hoisted over the Sinai? How many, surveying their gloomy economic prospects and the lack of political opportunity, care about the past? Precious few. Nor, for that matter, can they buy the notion that the outside world has been interfering in Egypt’s domestic affairs.
So Mubarak isn’t going anywhere. At least not until September. Meanwhile, there will be a committee to explore possible constitutional changes. All in good time of course. Ditto lifting the Emrgency Law. That too can’t be rushed. Audaciously, the President almost seemed to be suggesting that he was the real leader of the revolution. He too was frustrated with the slow pace of change but only he could properly make it happen. Even by the standards of contrarian revisionism this was an impressive, if implausible, gambit.
And so the outcome of the power struggle inside the regime – at least the struggle one presumes must be taking place – remains in doubt. Mubarak’s team seems to be stalling for time, trusting that the protestors will tire and, more importantly, that those sympathetic to change but afraid of the future will tire of the protestors. Nothing he said tonight, however, would seem capable of satisfying the thirst for reform.
Consequently Egypt’s future just became even less certain and much more dangerous. No-one ever said authoritarian regimes were sensitive or even intelligent, however. Mubarak just reminded us of that fact tonight. Delegating responsibility to Omar Suleiman can’t be enough.
What do Egyptians do now? What does the army do next? This regime has failed and none of the assurances Mubarak kinda, sorta, almost made tonight can inspire any confidence. A peaceful, measured transition to fresh arrangements just became less probable. Still possible but not so likely as it seemed just a few hours ago. Mubarak’s speech tonight might have worked had he made it two weeks ago; it surely can’t now. It was, no is, too little, too late.
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