Scotland on Sunday publishes a thumper of a poll today that suggests the SNP is on course to defeat Labour and remain the largest party at Holyrood. In fact, John Curtice’s calculations have the Nats taking 55 seats to Labour’s 49. The Tories, meanwhile, slip to 14 while the Lib Dems suffer a catastrophe and would be left with just six MSPs, just ahead of the Greens with five seats.
Should this poll be accurate and should the election – which is still 18 fun-stuffed days away – produce a result of this sort then happy days indeed. By which I mean, of course, not-as-desperate-as-they-might-have-been-days.
Kenny Farquharson lays it on a little thickly this morning when he contrasts the SNP’s campaign of “hope” with Labour’s fear-based approach but he is, in essence, correct. As he reminds us, the very first words in Labour’s dismal manifesto are “Now that the Tories are back we need a government in Scotland that will fight for what really matters.” To which the only sensible response is Jesus Christ, can’t we do a little bit better than that? That and Lord, deliver us from numpties.
True, Salmond has been happy to sing from this kind of old-left hymnal too but there is the sense that, deep down, Muckle Eck knows (at least) some of it is nonsense. Of course he can keep Scotland “tuition-fee-free” but he knows, even if he don’t spell it out, this means less money is available elsewhere. Labour, in thrall to a pre-Blair vision of Labour, demonstrate no such awareness. It is, furthermore, typical of Labour that the SNP policies they’ve borrowed tend to be among the Nationalists’ less-persuasive notions.
So, yes, the SNP are running a happier, jollier, sunnier campaign than Labour but much of their support is still based on fear. Not so much of London and the Tories (though that’s partly true) but fear of Labour and their dreadful band of grey-skinned nonentities stumbling back into power without having done the slightest thing to suggest they deserve it.
It’s worth remembering that were the Scottish elections conducted by First Past The Post there’d be no Scottish parliament. Neither the Liberal Democrats nor the SNP would have supported devolution if all that was on offer was continuing, grimly-persistent, Labour dominance. Nor would voters outwith Glasgow and the west have been keen to endorse devolution if it meant Scotland would be run by a souped-up Strathclyde Regional Council. (You might carp and say this has happened anyway. Let us not dwell on this kind of grief.)
So accepting a mixed electoral system was the price Labour had to pay. And now it hurts them. Voters – especially anti-Labour voters – have grasped that the second or regional vote matters if Labour are to be stopped. Hence the large number of people prepared to split their votes to thwart Labour and give the SNP a chance, just as they did in 2007. (Holyrood elections are unusual: most elections are increasingly fragmented affairs. Scotland’s, for Edinburgh anyway, are running against that trend. There are many Scotlands but these days we choose between just two of them.)
The Lib Dems may pay a price in their urban seats for their partnership with the Conservatives in London but they’re also squeezed badly on the regional vote by the appreciation that the election is, essentially, a choice between Alex Salmond remaining in place or replacing him with Iain Gray. That concentrates the mind. (I suspect the Liberals are losing some support to the Greens in Edinburgh as well.)
There’s a palpable sense that Salmond, whatever his shortcomings and whatever mistakes he has made (and there have been plenty) isn’t a god-help-us, head-in-hands, can-we-no-do-anything-right embarrassment. A low bar, perhaps, but one worth clearing. Labour, by contrast, present a desperate vision of a permanently enfeebled Scotland too pitiful to manage anything of any consequence for itself and utterly dependent upon the dread hand of municipal largesse.
Labour scoff at “personality politics” and like to tell us that the SNP are a one-man band. But, as I’ve said before, that means Labour are a no-man band. Who, pray, is Iain Gray’s deputy? I doubt one person in twenty could tell you. Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t share my suspicion that blowing-up the National Health Service might not be a bad idea but she’s not incompetent. For that matter, I’d trust John Swinney to do a better job at Finance than here’s-how-you-wash-your-hands Andy Kerr. As for Mr Gray, he may well be a decent chap but he couldn’t set the heather alight even if you handed him a can of kerosene and a big box of matches.
For many of us this is not an election over-packed with attractive options. There’s no need to compound that sadness by voting for the most miserable choice, however. We must make the best of what there is and that demands using our votes to prevent Labour reasserting the dominance they take for granted. Which is one of the reasons why I shall be voting Conservative in my constituency but SNP on the regional ballot.
Not that I entirely share Salmond’s enthusiasm for blanketing the country with wind turbines and forestry plantations but at least the SNP’s Big Plans for renewable energy are a something. Labour don’t offer even a bad Big Idea, just perpetual drizzle. You can’t be excited by the prospect of opposing that; all you can do is thole it or contemplate moving elsewhere.
The Labour vote remains stubborn, however. The SNP advantage is within the margin or error on both the constituency and regional votes. That means that even if this poll – which is also weighted to take account of likelihood to vote – is an accurate predictor of the final ballot that, actually, Labour and the SNP could be tied. Jeff Breslin thinks that possible.
Since the First Minister is elected by the parliament this means the Tories have, heavens to Bella, an opportunity to decide the election. I cannot imagine Annabel and her crew endorsing Mr Gray; I can conceive of them voting for Alex to remain in situ. A full-scale coalition – my eternal pipe-dream! – remains implausible but a beefier version of their existing super-secret, we-won’t-let-on-if-you-won’t, deal could be possible. If we must have Nudge in politics, this kind of nudge-nudge, clandestine-affair seems the best kind.
‘Tis a nice thing to suppose that the Tories, harsh on them though I’ve been, might hold the balance of power. If so there’s only one responsible course they can take: Back Eck. Never mind independence, Scotland cannot be free until the last Labour cooncillor is throttled with the last copy of the Daily Record. That’s the game and those are the stakes. Same as it always was.
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