Neither catharsis not cataclysm, but a year of mobile money and digital books

In a recent Spectator panel debate titled ‘Review 2012, Preview 2013’, Matthew Parris startled an expectant audience by observing that in his view nothing very interesting had happened in the past 12 months, and not much excitement lies in wait for next year. Prediction, we know, is a mug’s game — those ancient Mayans who said the world was going to end last week must be feeling more sheepish than a flock of Treasury growth forecasters. Even predicting ‘not much excitement’ is to risk being horribly wrong if our banks turn out to be as under-capitalised as the doomsters suggest, and it all kicks off again like September 2008. But Matthew is wise: experience should have taught us by now not to hope for great moments of catharsis, and not to live in constant fear of cataclysm.

So that’s it really. Muddling through is set to continue, the coalition will stumble on, recovery will be patchy, unseasonal weather and inappropriate behaviour will make headlines for want of anything weightier — and Europe’s ‘Newcomer to Watch’ will be Silvio Berlusconi. But still we must scratch our crystal balls one last time for 2012. So let me offer some positive futurology for two sectors close to my heart: banks and books.

Pay as you go

Following pre-Christmas arrests of Libor traders, huge fines on HSBC for laundering drug money and a £270 million cock-up at Northern Rock, banks could hardly stand lower in public estimation if they had been caught partying in Jimmy Savile’s dressing room. New entrants on the high street have made little impact so far — though I like the sound of the fledgling Cambridge & Counties Bank, which says it is busy offering loans to East Anglian retailers, pubs and hot food takeaways.