Received wisdom has it that Scotland’s embattled First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is considering her position. ‘She’s finished’ has become a mantra in political circles over the last few days. And not without justification: her absence from a key debate in Holyrood last week did suggest an announcement of some kind might be imminent; perhaps a white flag raised from Bute House.
But Sturgeon emerged from her bunker and was back in action at a press conference in Edinburgh yesterday, answering questions concerning her currently stymied Gender Recognition Reform (GRR) Bill and matters of almost equal awkwardness on SNP finances. She was dressed rather boldly in Thatcherite blue, which seemed to cock an ironic snoop at all those ‘Sturgeon’s poll tax’ comparisons made recently. She didn’t say the lady’s not for turning but did, sort of, confirm that it was still her intention to contest the Section 35 order blocking her gender bill.
Bluff and bluster? Maybe. Sturgeon did tie herself in knots by persisting with her new catch phrase ‘this individual is a rapist’ – a reference to Isla Bryson, the sex offender whose gender preference is now the cause of intense debate and embarrassment. Giving a definitive answer as to whether Bryson is male or female would undermine the whole premise of the GRR Bill, so a third sex has been conveniently invented.
Maintaining an absurd position is hard though, like talking for a minute without repetition, hesitation or deviation, and Sturgeon duly tripped up, letting slip a ‘she’ and a ‘her’. But apart from that and her habitual head bobbing, there were no obvious signs of a politician nearing the end. The pointless presser looked more like an attempt to recapture the magic of the daily Covid briefings, where her ubiquity had cast a spell over an anxious housebound nation, marking the high point of her popularity.
A recent YouGov poll shows a decline in support for the SNP, independence and ultimately Sturgeon herself. Some point to this as irrefutable evidence that the end is nigh. Yet concerning though the figures doubtless are for the SNP, they still leave the party well ahead of the opposition. And with no likely second referendum on the distant horizon and the next general election still way off, it is debatable how serious this be taken. Put it this way: it’s not panic stations stuff. Rishi Sunak would love to have a poll result like that for the Conservatives.
Labour, the party best placed to benefit from Sturgeon’s difficulties, have snookered themselves by having supported the GRR Bill with almost as much enthusiasm as the SNP: a potentially historic error. They and the similarly compromised Lib Dems are now missing in action, knowing any attack on the GRR Bill will simply rebound with added velocity given the likely accusations of opportunism and hypocrisy. And given that the Tories have been successfully demonised by the Nats, there is a limit to how much Douglas Ross can capitalise.
It is undoubtedly true that public anger has been stoked and inflamed by the GRR Bill shambles. Nicola Sturgeon is wounded. But fatally? There was a sizeable demonstration against the GRR Bill in George Square in Glasgow at the weekend – but sizeable is not huge. We are talking hundreds, not thousands, of people. This was awarded about five seconds on the BBC Scotland evening news, with equal time given to the two men and a dog (almost literally – there was ‘furry’ in a wolf suit) counter demonstration.
Nicola Sturgeon has the advantage of there being no obvious successor waiting in the wings
Sturgeon also has the advantage of there being no obvious successor waiting in the wings. Angus Robertson is still the bookie’s favourite but he is a divisive figure within the party (he presided over the census fiasco and is nicknamed ‘air miles Angus’ for his love of foreign travel). And Robertson has his own little local difficulty: he’s accused of breaking the ministerial code by reportedly quoting misleading statistics in Holyrood. He was given guidance not to use the SNP government’s ‘Scotland has 25 per cent of Europe’s wind energy potential line’ in the Scottish parliament – given as it’s actually between 4 and 6 per cent.
Other names touted include the principled Ash Regan, who resigned her ministerial post to vote against the GRR Bill. It is unclear however how much support she would have even if she did want it. And anyway, who would want to be leader of the SNP at such a time? The response to the Section 35 order still has to be dealt with along with multiple other scandals.
The party has been a one-woman band for so long it lacks the experience of replacing a leader or the mechanisms to do so easily. With Sturgeon appointed upon Alex Salmond’s resignation in 2014 the party has not had a genuine leadership contest in the adult lifetimes of most of its MSPs or MPs. There is no equivalent to the 1922 committee, no fifty letters. How exactly would it come about?
The easiest way would be for Sturgeon to stand down, which the Holyrood rumour mill suggests she may want to. It has long been speculated that she was in quest of a post-Holyrood career in an international NGO, which would explain the frantic conference hopping that has seen her grabbing notables for photos at every high-profile shindig she could blag a lanyard for. Forget ‘nippy sweetie’; she’s earned a new nickname of ‘Elsie McSelfie’. It might also explain her determination to see the GRR Bill through, thus securing a woke legacy that she may even still believe could lead to a ‘UN envoy for gender equality’ role.
But what if no big job is forthcoming? Sturgeon’s idol Jacinda Adern hasn’t, at least yet, blagged a lucrative sinecure, so her own chances – likely damaged by snubbing UN special rapporteur Reem Alsalem’s warnings that key amendments to the bill have been disregarded – might be slim.
An alternative scenario could see Sturgeon obliged to stand down. That would take a contingent of men, women and ‘individuals’ in tartan suits to pay her a visit. But while this would not only be unprecedented, it would require organisation and courage from the Scottish people and a clear alternative from the SNP – none of which is currently evident.
‘She’s finished’ might be an example of the illusory truth effect, where saying something often enough makes you believe it might be true. Or perhaps it is wish fulfilment from the SNP leader’s many critics. It may even be true; but even if Nicola Sturgeon’s days are numbered, that number remains, at present, pretty high.
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