Katy Balls Katy Balls

Nicola Sturgeon’s threat of Indyref2 could save the Scottish Tories

In the village of Waterfoot on the outskirts of Glasgow, a lady in her thirties is explaining to her local Conservative MP, Paul Masterton, why he has her vote. It can’t exactly be described as complimentary. ‘We were talking about this the other night. Corbyn’s an absolute clown and Nicola’s just horrific so… I don’t want to say the best of a bad bunch…’ Masterton chips in before things get awkward: ‘Don’t worry. I’ve heard lots of phrases said on the door. “Best of a bad bunch” would be acceptable.’

His seat, East Renfrewshire, was a Scottish Tory stronghold before the party’s 1997 wipeout. When Boris Johnson called the general election, many expected another implosion — especially after the unexpected retirement of Ruth Davidson, who had done so much to restore the party’s fortunes in Scotland. East Renfrewshire was down as a likely Tory loss, given its status as one of the most pro-Remain seats in the country. But what might save Masterton is that the constituency also voted to remain in the United Kingdom. And this is fast becoming the main issue of the Scottish campaign.

The Tories have Nicola Sturgeon to thank for this new focus. The SNP is treating the campaign like an independence crusade. There were extraordinary scenes in George Square in Glasgow this month when it turned into a sea of saltires, with thousands calling for a second independence referendum. The First Minister’s message could scarcely be clearer: a vote for the SNP on 12 December is a vote for IndyRef2. As she has since made clear, she stands ready to put Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street in December if he agrees to let her hold a referendum in fairly short order.

There’s a good reason the SNP doesn’t want to waste time.

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