No, Britain can’t direct Europe. Let’s stop pretending otherwise

Can Britain reorder Europe? When James Forsyth and I interviewed the Prime Minister on Monday we were struck by his line of argument. Yes, he said, seeing the immigration crisis coming straight after the Euro crisis may make voters want out. But this, he said, was an instinctive reaction. There was a better response:-

The longer term reaction might actually be: well if they are going to have a single currency and they are on our doorstep and they are going to try and make it work, let’s make sure our relationship with them works…  If they are going to have a borderless Europe which we’re not part of, for heaven’s sake let’s make sure they have strong external borders.

I look at this in my Daily Telegraph column today: make sure that they have strong external borders? Shape the way they work? We’re back to the noble fantasy, so endemic in the Foreign Office, that Britain can direct Europe. Until now, one of the best things about Cameron’s foreign policy had been the absence of any delusion that Britain could somehow join the EU to run the EU. It’s a monstrously vain assumption, but one to which UK Prime Ministers have fallen prey…

•  Under Ted Heath, a 1971 government White Paper promised: [on foreign policy in the EC] ‘we will be joining at a moment when we shall be able to influence the process of development. This will also be true of progress towards economic and monetary union.’
• The 1975 ‘yes’ pamphlet, whose Foreword was written by Harold Wilson, promised: ‘Common Market policies are going to affect the lives of every family in the country. Inside the Market, we can play a major part in deciding these policies. Outside, we are on our own.’
• Margaret Thatcher in 1975 said that ‘By turning our backs we would forfeit our right to influence what happens in the Community… We can play a leading role in Europe.’
• John Major, 1991: ‘I want Britain to inspire and to shape Europe as decisively as we have over the Single Market programme. Then we will fight for Europe’s interests, too. But not from the outside where we would lose. From the inside where we will win.’

• Tony Blair, after taking office in 1997: ‘Europe needs us. For we have a vision of Europe… But we cannot shape Europe unless we matter in Europe.’
• Gordon Brown, February 2010: ‘we are fighting for a future where Britain is not isolated but a leader of Europe’

Until Monday, you could no find a Cameron quote to add to this delusional drivel. I’m not even sure he means it now: Britain influencing the external borders of Europe? Really? Right now you have Hungary saying that the “only solution” is to erect a fence around the EU, and Angela Merkel saying that reminds her too much of East Berlin. What can Britain contribute to this debate? Cameron has already shown what to do with Syrian refugees: take them directly from the camps, rather than reward people traffickers by accommodating those who pitch up. But no one listens.

It would be a shame if the Prime Minister was reduced to pulling out this emergency parachute of an argument. He needs to stick to his Plan A. He’s being decent: too decent. He just won a majority based on a manifesto which pledged that:-

We will insist that EU migrants who want to claim tax credits and child benefit must live here and contribute to our country for a minimum of four years.  This will reduce the financial incentive for lower-paid, lower skilled workers to come to Britain.  If an EU migrant’s child is living abroad, then they should receive no child benefit or child tax credit, no matter how long they have worked in the UK and no matter how much tax they have paid. To reduce the numbers of EU migrants coming to Britain, we will end the ability of EU jobseekers to claim any job-seeking benefits at all.

If the House of Lords rejected this, then Cameron’s government would use the Parliament Act to ram it through – and quite right too. That’s democracy. But if the EU rejects this basic demand, then what does he do?

Cameron ought to be clear about this: the promises made to the nation in his manifesto are his minimal demand. Anything less and he cannot, in good conscience, recommend a “remain” vote when the referendum comes.