Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

In data: the rise of non-Covid deaths

Photo by DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/AFP via Getty Images

A pandemic will claim lives in two ways: directly, through those it infects, and indirectly as others who need healthcare either do not seek it or are denied it. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, has always made this argument – which is partly why, for so long, he was not seeking a lockdown. The focus, since then, has understandably been on Covid deaths. But about a third of the rise in excess death is not explained by Covid, and it’s worth looking at in more detail. The chart showing weekly deaths will, by now, be pretty well-known. But if you strip out Covid deaths (ie, those with ‘Covid’ written on the death certificate) you can still see a spike,

Look at the figures for the week in question, to 17 April, and you can see how the non-Covid deaths are spread around the country.

This is the third week of this trend. On a cumulative basis, non-Covid deaths – broken down by region – are as follows: the Midlands, 1,600. London, the North West and the South East, 1,200 each. The East of England, 1,000. The North East and Yorkshire, 800. The South West, 600. Wales, almost 200.   

Is this just a statistical glitch: undiagnosed Covid? There will obviously be an under-reporting of cases – but as Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson has said, as many of two-thirds of ‘Covid deaths’ would have happened anyway – if so, most ‘Covid deaths’ will be due to other causes. So the deaths from causes other than Covid might be rising even higher than the above numbers suggest. We know that thousands were moved out of hospitals and into far-worse-equipped care homes in the run-up to the Covid peak. We also know that 40,000 hospital beds are empty, four times more than is normal for this time of year.

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