Not great, not a disaster

Last November, the OECD forecast — as it does — that the UK economy would grow by 1.7 per cent in 2011. Today, it has downgraded that figure to 1.5 per cent. I wonder, does this matter? Sure, it’s not an encouraging sign. And Ed Balls will be slathering at the thought of the OBR doing likewise next week. He has barely been able to contain his excitement already. Yet it’s worth pointing out two things.

First, that the OECD is just one forecaster among many. The Treasury monitors no less than 39 independent organisations, and collects their forecasts on a monthly basis. Here’s what the picture looks like today:

Which is to say, the average growth forecast for this year is unchanged at 1.8 per cent. For next year, it is 2.1 per cent. This is a more complete guide than the prophecies of any one forecaster, even if you are not taken with this brand of economic soothsaying in the first place.