Obama has picked a Cheney when he needed a Gore

In a peacetime election, Barack Obama’s selection of Joe Biden would make perfect sense. Biden is a national security heavyweight and his presence on the ticket would reassure voters than an Obama administration would be up to speed on foreign policy rather as Cheney did for Bush in 2000. But with America still engaged in two wars, the pick is risky.

The Republicans are already pushing the message that America can’t have a president at time of war who needs his hand holding during a crisis. Selecting Biden also denies Obama one of his strongest possible lines in the debates. When McCain raises the question of Obama’s readiness to lead, Obama could have shot back saying: ‘I got Iraq right, you didn’t. The people who got the biggest foreign policy decision of the post Cold War wrong, they’re the people who aren’t qualified to be president.’ The presence of Biden—who voted for the war—on the ticket takes such an attack off the table.

Obama would have been better served by emphasising his change message. He could have done this by picking a Republican like Chuck Hagel, a non-partisan figure, or another ‘new’ politician—Mark Warner who is keynoting the Democratic convention would have been a good choice. He should have sought—as Clinton did in 1992—to emphasise his message rather than trying to correct a weakness.

Perhaps, the most interesting thing about the Biden pick is the question of whether the Obama campaign is now acting out of nerves or fear—most of the political class don’t think Obama would have picked Biden if the polls weren’t so close or if national security hadn’t so dominated the debate in the past few weeks. When a campaign starts chasing its tails as the Kerry and Gore ones ended up doing, it is in big trouble.  

One other thing worth noting is that Obama picking Biden, strengthens the case for McCain picking someone with executive experience—something that neither Obama nor Biden have—and someone from outside the beltway. The McCain camp will also be relieved that Biden does not make them play defence in a red state in the way that Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine would have done.