Peter Oborne’s column today is explosive stuff. He writes that secret talks have already begun between Labour and Liberal Democrat figures about a possible coalition. He reports that as a sweetener to any possible deal the Labour Whips office is already drumming up support for Ming Campbell as the next Speaker.
Oborne points to an article by Vince Cable suggesting that a national government might not be a bad idea and says:
“Throughout all my years of reporting politics I have rarely encountered such a blatant hint by a senior politician from an opposition party that he wants a job in government – and all the signs are that Gordon Brown is warming to the idea of Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer in a government of national unity.
However, the position of Nick Clegg (Cable’s boss) is much less clear. I understand that Vince Cable’s public musings about a coalition government were emphatically not sanctioned in advance by his leader. Furthermore, insiders speak of a growing split inside the Liberal Democrats over the issue.”
It is apparently Cable and Ming Campbell, an old friend of Brown, who are pushing for this deal. If Clegg were to go along with it, I suspect he would split his party. It is hard to imagine David Laws, for example, going into coalition with Labour and Lib Dem MPs in Southern seats would, generally, not be keen on this idea.
For Brown the appeal of this idea is that it would isolate the Tories. Brown would also appeal bold and such a move would give the impression that he appreciated how drastic the challenges facing the country are. However, there are pitfalls here for Brown as well. How would Darling and the other Labour figures who would have to be eased out or demoted to make way for Lib Dems feel and would letting the Tories become the sole opposition party in England actually help them?
Clegg has the most to lose from this deal. If Cable is to become Chancellor, Clegg would not the most senior Lib Dem in government, undermining his authority. If this coalition were not to work and the Tories were to form the next government, Clegg’s tenure as Lib Dem leader would be over and it would be hard to see how he could reestablish himself politically. For these reasons, I suspect that these talks will come to nothing. Although what Cable does personally is less predictable.
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