Brace yourselves – the reshuffle forecasts have shifted from ‘likely’ to ‘imminent’. According to this morning’s paper’s, one could come as early as September 1st, as Brown tries to reestablish his government after the summer recess.
So, who’ll go where? Well, there’s talk of promotions to the Cabinet for Liam Bryne and Jim Murphy (the former was awarded The Spectator/Threadneedle’s ‘Minister to Watch’ 2007, and the latter was recently interviewed by Fraser). And demotions for Des Browne, Paul Murphy and Hilary Benn. But the big question is of what Brown will do with David Miliband, if the Foreign Secretary hasn’t formally lauched a leadership challenge by then. A “job swap” between him and Alistair Darling is “one option” currently being considered – sending Milband to the Treasury, and placating Darling with the position of Foreign Secretary.
Will it do any good? There are plenty of reasons to be sceptical (Dizzy gives a good rundown of them here). Whilst they’re capable enough, Bryne and Murphy are hardly the big-hitters that might, by themselves, inspire public confidence in this Government. At this stage in the game, Brown might be best advised to go for name recognition and draft in some Labour warhorses, such as Alan Milburn or Jon Cruddas. For Brown, that could also have the beneficial side-effect of shoring up some support in his leadership from the various wings of the party – thereby diluting the risk of leadership challenges.
And as for how he deals with the Miliband problem, I’ve said before that it’s a lose-lose-lose-lose-lose situation for Brown. Keeping the Foreign Secretary in the fold – or even promoting him – smacks of weakness. Whilst sacking him will kickstart a leadership challenge that will fracture the Government even more. Of course, that’s if Miliband doesn’t act first, and hand in his resignation. Although from what we’ve seen so far, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Comments