The two-day Dublin Racing Festival this weekend will – just as Cheltenham Trials Day did a week ago – provide a host of clues to which horses might win the big races at the Cheltenham Festival in mid-March.
I covered tomorrow’s Grade1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, 1.20 p.m.) in my column two weeks ago. I still fancy Jetara to see off her five rivals, all from the yards of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott.
Sadly, the odds of 10-1 for Jessica Harrington’s talented mare and the three places that were available a fortnight ago have both long gone. There are plenty of other fascinating races and an array of talent on show in Ireland but there are no more bets there for me.
The on-track fare on this side of the Irish Sea is more moderate but I am happy to put up one bet tomorrow in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (Sandown, 3.45 p.m.). As regular readers will know, I like backing horses from the smaller yards, particularly the non-gambling stables, because you often get better odds that you should compared with horses from the bigger operations.
CERTAINLY RED is a veteran now, at the age of ten, but hopefully no back number quite yet. Hailing from Lydia Richards’ West Sussex yard, he knows how to win – four from 11 over career chases. His three runs this season have hardly set the world alight but a return to better ground and a return to a track where he has winning form are in his favour.
There is a lot of 7-1 around but back him with Betfred paying four places (SkyBet is also offering four places but odds of only 6-1). There are only ten runners so four places is certainly attractive.
My main fancy today though is an ante-post bet for the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase at Haydock on Saturday 17 February – that’s two weeks’ tomorrow. Anthony Honeyball is a talented young trainer on the up who had plundered some nice Saturday prizes this season.
I am hoping his likeable and consistent mare CREDO can win this race off a mark of just 132. She is a strong stayer and fine jumper who ran well enough when fourth to My Silver Lining at Warwick in the Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase last month.
My Silver Lining and Guetapan Collonges, who was third at Warwick, are both entered in the Grand National Trial too and are weighted to confirm the form with Credo, but the former is unlikely to go to Haydock, according to trainer Emma Lavelle.
I particularly like the fact that Credo has rock solid Haydock form this season in two races on soft and heavy ground because the Merseyside track is one for course specialists, especially on rain-softened ground.
All bookies are offering four places which is, once again, attractive because for the last three years this race has attracted only 14, 11 and nine runners respectively, and I can see this year’s race cutting up too. According to Honeyball in a stable tour earlier this week, the Haydock race is Credo’s next target so back her each way at 14-1 with Coral or Ladbrokes.
Last but not least, I am going to put up another bet for the Randox Grand National. I realise some readers will find it odd proposing three horses so far in advance of the race but I did the same last year, including putting up the winner, Corach Rambler at 20-1. Provided the horse I fancy is being aimed at the race, I am happy to take a chance that it stays sound to get better odds.
My final ante-post bet on the race (Mahler Mission and Vanillier are backed already) is another Irish trained horse: PANDA BOY. If there is a shrewder Irishman in existence than the horse’s handler Martin Brassil, then I would love to meet him. Brassil is a master of training staying chasers and placing them to win big races.
He says Panda Boy, who has plenty of good form on the other side of the Irish Sea, is being aimed at Aintree. The horse’s official Irish mark is just 143 but I suspect the British handicapper will give him at least 3 lbs more, giving him every chance of making the cut for the big race. I am convinced that he will be even better than he has shown on spring ground – hopefully ‘good to soft’ terrain come mid-April (they will water if necessary).
I also love his odds – 40-1 with several bookies but back him with Betfred, offering five places at that price. If Panda Boy does make the line-up in two and a half months’ time, he will almost certainly go off at half those odds or less.
In fact, Panda Boy is due to run this weekend but over hurdles to protect his chase mark. He might well win tomorrow (Leopardstown, 3 p.m.) but I will be pleased simply to see him return safely in one piece with this far bigger prize in mind on 13 April.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Certainly Red at 7-1 in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase, 1/5th odds, four places.
1 point each way Jetara at 10-1 for the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Brentford Hope at 14-1 for the Betfair Hurdle, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Credo at 14-1 in the Grand National Trial, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Jetara at 14-1 NRNB for Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
Settled bets from last weekend:
1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 25-1 in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 5th. – 2 points.
1 point each way Grandeur D’Ame at 11-1 in the Countdown Podcast Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. UR – 2 points.
1 point each way Ga Law at 11-1 in the Countdown Podcast Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 1st. + 13.2 points.
1 point each way Twoshotsoftequila at 16-1 in the Great Yorkshire Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Cap Du Nord at 8-1 in the Great Yorkshire Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 5.95 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
Comments