How did Ukip steal their second seat from the Tories with a candidate as uninspiring as Mark Reckless? Now that he has begun work in the Commons alongside Douglas Carswell, here’s a reflection on the last 24 hours and how the party romped home.
Mature Ukip
Ask any Ukipper why the party won Rochester and the first answer will likely be about how much the party has matured — both in attitudes and the sophistication of its operation. Once, their electioneering efforts were entirely scattergun. Now, the kippers are now focused. Speaking to The Spectator in the early hours of Friday morning, Deputy Ukip leader Paul Nuttall explained how much the party has grown in this year:
‘Ukip has really grown. I mean, you can’t compare where this party is now to where it was even six months ago in terms of the technology when it comes by-elections. Indeed if we would have had this technology when it comes to Heywood and Middleton, we would probably have won that, maybe with a 2,000 majority as well.’
I hung around Ukip’s HQ in Rochester on polling day and saw a wide array of supporters – far broader a coalition that you might expect. There was 15-year-old Jonathan, a sparky boy who changed out of his school uniform, donned a Ukip rosette and went out door knocking. He’s too young to vote but became attracted to the party after liking their Facebook page two years ago.
He was joined by hordes of elderly residents in a multitude of colourful outfits. They stopped by to pick up leaflets and maps to ensure every last person in Rochester and Strood who was considering voting did. This included Nigel Farage, who arrived in the constituency at 10am yesterday and spent hours door knocking. To keep the media pack happy, he made an appearance at the Sweet Expectations shop and bought a packet of bonbons.
But it’s the ‘technology’ too
As well as the dedication of its supporters, Ukip claim the introduction of new technology as a secret of their Rochester success. Chris Bruni-Lowe is running Ukip’s target seat operation. Last night, he told me about his increased use of technology and the challenges he faced in Rochester:
‘The Tories had a lot of data, they had generations of data and some of it when it comes to Ukip is not very worthwhile but actually they know who their voters are, they know who their Labour voters are whereas we didn’t know any of this. We had eight weeks to find out all this information and it’s hard going.’
Bruni-Lowe said that during the early days, Ukip did a mass canvass of the constituency, a ‘very quick canvas’, before targeting voters on an issue by issue basis. He denies that the sheer quantity of Ukippers was responsible for the victory but instead it was the lessons learnt from Clacton: to win requires an understanding of what makes voters tick and learning new techniques day by day. There are even lessons from the party they are trouncing the polls:
‘Ukip is changing, very much like the Lib Dems, they’ve grown from the ground up through councillors and now to hopefully MPs.’
Bruni-Lowe pointed out that after a campaign, the Tories tend to pickup and leave the area promptly, while he hopes Ukip will continue to keep a strong presence, even in areas they do not win. As soon as the polls had closed last night, the Tory HQ in Rochester was being dismantled:
The Tory campaign offices packs up in Rochester.
Polling: how Ukip went from 0 to 42 percent
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As the above chart shows, Ukip went from nothing in 2010 (there was no candidate standing) to 42 percent in this by-election. The Conservatives and Labour vote took a significant knock, the Greens managed to increase their share while the Lib Dems were completely destroyed.
However, their 2,920 vote lead is a little less than some were expecting, raising questions of whether they will hold the seat at the general election. The slimmer margin may also scare off some potential defectors. There was talk from some Ukippers yesterday of eight, then five points leads, while opinion polling throughout the campaign suggested it might be in double digits:
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However, the last constituency polling took place more than ten days before polling and by-elections races traditionally narrow during the last few days. Polling individual constituencies is always fraught with difficulties: just look at the huge lead Ukip garnered in Heywood and Middleton.
Reckless vs Farage
At the election count last night, one Ukip man hogged all the attention – and it wasn’t Mark Reckless. The pair were snapped shaking hands, but that seems to be it. Maybe they were splitting the media rounds but from where I stood it seemed that Reckless mostly kept to his people and Nigel Farage to his:
Mark Reckless at the count
Nigel Farage doing the media rounds at the count.
Farage arrived after Reckless at around 2am, in plenty of time to chat to journalists before the results were called. Referencing the work of Tory strategists Lynton Crosby and Jim Messina, Farage said of the Conservatives’ efforts:
‘They seem to believe that negative campaigning works in this country. I hope what tonight’s result proves is that we’re actually a better country than that.’
And what about the general election?
‘If we win this, against that machine, in this constituency, which nobody gave us a cats chance in hell, all bets are off.’
What’s next for Ukip
Although Ukip has pulled off a victory by bagging their second parliamentary seat, there is a sense of uncertainty of what lies ahead for the party. Given Reckless’ win, talk of more defectors will continue over the next few days. The bookies have Philip Hollobone on 2/1 to be the next man to jump ship. But with six months to go until the general election, the prospect of any more by-elections looks unlikely. Farage himself said last night that although he would love the prospect of more by-elections, there won’t be any.
Therefore if a defector crosses the floor within the next few weeks, he will either have to sit as a Ukip MP until May, or as an independent and vote with Ukip until the election. Either way, any new defectors will be second class Ukip MPs in Parliament to Carswell and Reckless, not having asked their constituents about whether they made the right decision to switch sides.
The other concern is how the party begins to build itself a credible policy platform. Although Farage and co. consistently said the Rochester result shows that if you ‘vote Ukip, you get Ukip’, by-elections throw up unusual results — frequently based on protest politics. Ukip is still a political phenomena no one claims to understand.
In May, Ukip will have to explain to Britain why voting for the people’s army will result in a better government. Right now, the people of Rochester appeared chiefly concerned about sticking it to the political class.
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