The Labour party returns to Liverpool this weekend for its annual four-day jamboree. Twelve months after a dismal conference, dominated by discussions about donations, drift and dire decisions, most party activists will be disappointed that the situation has not improved. In 2024, the story was the controversial then-chief of staff Sue Gray and ‘freebiegate’ – the row over the multi-thousand-pound clothes Keir Starmer accepted from Labour donor, Lord Alli. In 2025, it will be the futures of Starmer and Gray’s successor, Morgan McSweeney. Both men are under intense pressure amid doubts about their chosen political strategy. ‘It’s going to be a shitshow,’ says one MP who has decided to skip the conference. A number of colleagues are choosing to do the same: emblematic of the party’s loss of faith in the Prime Minister.
Starmer’s vulnerability has created a vacuum that others appear all-too keen to fill. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, is the most obvious figure on manoeuvres. His criticisms of government policy this week (including of Britain being ‘in hock to the bond markets’) have resonated with many in the Labour party – but prompted a stinging rebuke from Rachel Reeves this morning. Among some MPs, there is a sense that Burnham has played his cards too soon. ‘Has he got the numbers? Does he have a seat?’ asks one backbencher. ‘If the answer to both is “no”, then why is he out here acting like he does?’ Burnham’s multiple appearances at the conference will be studied by Labour Kreminologists for any sign of disloyalty or coded attack.
‘It’s going to be a shitshow,’ says one MP who has decided to skip the jamboree
Other senior party figures will be more subtle in their dissent. Starmer’s recognition of a Palestinian state was a timely move ahead of the conference. But thousands of members would like to see him go further and echo the calls of Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, that Israel is committing ‘genocide’. Eyebrows have been raised in recent weeks at punchy comments by Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, that Israeli officials need to ‘answer the allegations of war crimes’. Debate is unlikely to play out on the conference floor, with motions from local parties about Palestine blocked from discussion. There could, however, be protests either inside or outside the secure zone.
However, it is not just Burnham who is concerned about Labour and the bond markets. Party backbenchers such as Clive Lewis have articulated similar concerns, with the Chancellor needing to find between £20 billion and £30 billion in tax rises to maintain her fiscal headroom. Reeves is expected to issue a stout defence of fiscal stability in her conference speech and pitch herself as the pro-business Chancellor. But that could be undermined if her own MPs use fringe events over the coming days to sound off about the direction of this government’s economic policy.
Hanging over the Liverpool jamboree is the rise of Reform UK. Opinion within Labour is divided on how best to confront the rise of Nigel Farage’s party. ‘Renew Britain’ is the strapline this conference, with Starmer’s speech on Tuesday expected to expand on the theme of ‘patriotic renewal’ he first raised in London yesterday. Senior aides are keen to stress this will be more than just framing the next election as ‘Labour v Reform’. They want to show that this government is genuinely progressive, with serious achievements on workers’ rights and the EU reset deal. Expect to see much handwringing on the fringes about ‘Labour values’ and balancing principles with pragmatism.
The deputy leadership race offers a potential proxy war for this debate. Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell are battling it out to succeed Angela Rayner, forced to quit over her tax affairs. The contest is being seen by many within the party as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership – much to the frustration of both women. Polling for LabourList conducted by Survation found that 57 per cent of members who are likely to vote will back Powell in the contest, compared to 26 per cent for Phillipson. That 31-point lead is double the lead which Powell had last week. ‘Lucy being so far ahead could actually help Keir,’ says one aide. ‘It would be worse if it was Benn-Healey 2.0’ – a reference to the 1981 contest in which Denis Healey triumphed over Tony Benn with just 0.8 per cent of the vote.
For Starmer, an Arsenal fan, this conference is all about channelling the favoured mantra of his club’s manager, Mikel Arteta: ‘Trust the process.’ He will use his address to promise that a better tomorrow is around the corner, with the UK at the forefront of technological change. The not-so-subtle message to Burnham and other would-be pretenders is clear: Hold your nerve, stick to the plan. But, if improvement is not forthcoming over the coming months, the Prime Minister is unlikely to get many more chances to address his party from the conference stage.
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