File Tim Pawlenty’s endorsement of Mitt Romney in the drawer marked Fancy That! So, not a surprise but telling nevertheless and a useful signal that the battle for the Republican party’s presidential nomination can be summarised as Problem Solvers vs Firebrands.
This may be a little unfair on Rick Perry since his candidacy is an attempt to fuse the two, albeit by pointing to Texas policies that may not be replicable in other parts of the great Union. Nevertheless, Perry’s campaign is, thus far at least, predicated upon an appeal to a certain kind of muscular conservatism whose appeal is largely a matter of aesthetics. That is, sound and style matter more than substance. If the candidate walks and talks like a proper conservative then to hell with his actual record.
Given Perry’s history – which is to say, heresy – on matters such as the HPV vaccine and immigration it’s still more important for him to look and sound the part. Remember guys, he’s an Aggie not a Yalie*. And this matters because it’s a question of culture, not policy.
No wonder Pawlenty, as milquetoast a governor as you could wish for, has hitched his little wagon train to Romney. Perhaps this is a ploy to win favour and position in a putative Romney administration but it’s also a telling indicator that what we used to consider mainstream or elite Republican thinking is not likely to swing behind the governor of Texas.
This, again, is a matter of style and temperament but it is also a question of “electability”. We’ve been here before, albeit on the other side of the aisle. In 2004 many Democrats “dated [Howard] Dean; married [John] Kerry” and Romney’s campaign is based on a comparable calculation: hold steady, stick to the plan and wait for the voters to appreciate that you’re the guy with the best shot at unseating an incumbent.
Aspiring to be the Republican John Kerry ain’t much of an aspiration but it makes some sense for Romney. You don’t have to like me, he says, but you better believe I’ve got the best chance of winning. The risk for Romney is that, while this kind of approach has wored in the past, the Republican electorate wants more than that this time around.
For that matter, it depends on the President too. If Obama looks easily-beatable or improbably strong then the temptation will be to go with the candidate who makes the GOP feel best about itself; Romney’s chances are improved if Obama seems formidable-yet-defeatable if only Republicans pick the candidate with the greatest “electability” upside. This, like so much else about Romney’s campaign, is a fine, subtle calculation.
Pawlenty’s endorsement, however, is part of a Stop Perry campaign.
*ie, Perry is a product of Texas A&M (agricultural and mechanical), not Yale.
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