The time seems right to move from the flat to the jumps for tipping purposes. Qipco-sponsored Champions Day at Ascot is not the end of the flat season and the first day of racing at Cheltenham today does not mark the start of the National Hunt season but there is no more appropriate moment to switch.
There have been highs and lows on the betting front this flat season but overall the former have outweighed the latter. In fact, it has been my most successful season yet as a tipster under the Penworthy pseudonym, with a profit of more than 84 points. It was certainly satisfying to tip the winners of the Derby, Ascot Gold Cup and the Arc, all at decent prices, plus to land two other Royal Ascot winners at 25-1 and 16-1. My biggest priced winner of the season came at Glorious Goodwood with Witness Stand, put up at 33-1.
However, I am still learning all the time: number one lesson from the season is not to put up ground-dependent horses ante-post because, as Champions Day proved, you don’t always get the going that you expect.
Last weekend, I had suggested backing horses ante-post that like cut in the ground expecting the usual soft/heavy going description for Champions Day, only to have good ground for the meeting as a result of one of the driest summers and early autumns on record. It’s also never too late to teach old dogs, new tricks.
Anyway, enough of the past, more of the future. I am hoping to start the jumps season on the front foot with a couple of tips at Cheltenham today and two more at the same track tomorrow.
At this early point in the season, I am always looking to back horses that have run well on the flat and that are well handicapped over hurdles. Step forward, the James Owen-trained CHARGING THUNDER who can hopefully take advantage of a lenient jumps rating in the Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (2.25 p.m.).
His last run on the flat at York in August was poor but before that he had run well in his previous three starts, notably when third in the ultra-competitive JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap at Newcastle. Back Charging Thunder 1 point each way at 13-2 with Willliam Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral or BetVictor, all paying four places..
Strange as it may seem, TRAPRAIN LAW was the number one horse that I took out of the Cheltenham Festival in March. He jumped for fun at the head of the field before fading to finish seventh in the Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap over two miles. There is no doubt that the ground that day was quicker than he prefers so that was a pretty good performance.
His then-handler Lucinda Russell, now his joint-handler after teaming up with Michael Scudamore, has long said this horse needs a fast pace on soft ground and today he might just get them both in the squareintheair.com Handicap Chase (3.35 p.m.). The ground is currently good to soft with showers forecast this afternoon.
Annoyingly, Traprain Law must race from 3lbs out of the handicap but even a mark of 134 could be lenient, the more so if plenty of rain falls before the off. Traprain Law is reaching his peak at seven years old and is fit from being second in his first run of the season at Kelso last month. Back him 1 point each way at 7-1 with Ladbrokes, paying three places.
In tomorrow’s William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (2.20 p.m), I am backing a real Cheltenham specialist in the shaped of the Neil Mulholland-trained TRANSMISSION.
In truth, he was slightly disappointing behind Haiti Couleurs in the marathon Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March. He had been trained all season for the race, was backed into 7-2 joint favourite and had Patrick Mullins in the saddle, yet he could only finish a fairly distant fifth.
Transmission is better than he showed that day and, with a win and two seconds at the course last season, back him 1 point each way at 9-1 with Coral or BetVictor, both paying five places.
In tomorrow’s Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle qualifier (2.55 p.m.), I am going to take a chance on one the outsiders: PATRIOTIK trainer by Evan Williams and ridden by his daughter Isabel.
Williams Snr said last season that he thought this horse, now a six-year-old grey gelding, was capable of landing a decent handicap and today might just be the day he comes good. He will certainly stay this three-mile trip and, as with Traprain Law, it is a question of the more rain, the better for him. Back Patriotic 1 point each way at Sky Bet at 18-1, with the firm paying slightly shorter odds than rivals but a generous six places instead.
In reality, it is unlikely that there will be many clues over the next two days for the Festival in March but it’s still good to have racing back at Cheltenham after an absence of more than five months. It signals that the jumps season proper is fully under way.
Pending:
1 point each way Charging Thunder at 13-2 for the Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Traprain Law at 7-1 for the squareintheair.com Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Transmission at 9-1 for the William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Patriotik at 18-1 for thePertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
Last weekend: – 8 points
1 point each way No Half Measures at 25-1 for the Champions Sprint, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 4th. + 4 points.
1 point each way Rayevka at 14-1 for the Champions Sprint, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Waardah at 8-1 for the Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Wemightakedlongway at 20-1 for the Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Docklands at 14-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 4th. – 2 points.
1 point each way Almeric at 22-1 for the Champions Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Cerulean Bay at 16-1 for the Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025-26 jumps season:
2025 flat season running total: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six seasons of tipping: + 126 points
Comments