At first blush the selections of Joe Biden and Sarah Palin appear to have little in common. Obama went for an experienced Washington insider with a ton of national security experience, McCain went for a first term governor whose previous statements on foreign policy hardly suggest a great deal of knowledge about the subject. But the two picks do have something in common: they’re the picks you would have advised the candidates to make if they were running in 2000.
In 2000, with the misguided holiday from history still in full swing, Biden would have answered questions about Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience in the way that Cheney did for Bush. While picking a Palin-style figure then would have bolstered McCain’s reform credentials and his reputation as a different-kind of Republican. However, in 2008—with America fighting two wars and facing a resurgent Russia and an Iran that is dangerously close to going nuclear—the picks both seem somewhat unsatisfying. Biden on the grounds that the president himself should have the knowledge and judgement to deal with these questions and Palin because it is hard to imagine her stepping up to the presidency if something happened to McCain early in his first term.
The two picks have, to an extent, scrambled the race as neither side has chosen to double down on its message. Instead, the electorate faces a choice between tickets of change and experience and experience and change. The next few weeks will see both sides trying to redefine the race, how it looks going into the debates is going to be crucial.
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