Polls show that the Tories might have won an autumn election

The details of the YouGov / Sunday Times poll show just how dangerous a November election would have been for Labour. The Tories are ahead 41 to 38, but amongst those certain to vote their lead rises to 45-36: very close to the ten point advantage they need for a working majority. The Tories also lead by significant margins—10 and 20 points, respectively—on what would have been the two most important issues for voters in a November election, crime and immigration.  While the Tories also hold a very narrow lead on who would be most likely to raise people’s standard of living.

There are good numbers in the poll for Brown. He leads Cameron 40 to 17% on strength, 39 to 26% on trustworthiness and 27 to 6% on being good in a crisis. Yet, one has to imagine that these numbers will take a hit following the events of yesterday.

Interestingly, 26% of voters think less of Brown after his visit to Iraq and 60% agree that the military covenant has been broken. Tomorrow’s statement on Iraq will be extremely tricky for Brown. In the current atmosphere, any big announcement risks being seen as an attempt to distract attention away from this whole fiasco.