Rachel Reeves will apparently tell us today that she has chosen stability over chaos. It is one of the Chancellor’s standard lines, but it is very much beyond her control. Bond markets will have the ultimate say. They didn’t much like her Budget in October – indeed, long-term borrowing costs are higher now than they were in the wake of Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini Budget in September – and they might not like the spending review much more.
That is a potent mixture for economic gloom – it is the economy’s mental health we should be worried about most
The underlying synopsis behind today’s fiscal event is that the government is running a £150 billion deficit, and is already having to spend £100 billion a year on debt interest – more than it spends on defence or education. Moreover, economic growth is virtually non-existent, with productivity bumping along the bottom and ever-increasing numbers of workers opting out of the workforce in preference for a life on out-of-work benefits, quite often using their mental health as an excuse. That

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