Uh oh. 2025 hasn’t gotten off to the best start for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour lot and YouGov’s first Westminster voting intention poll since the July election is unlikely to brighten the mood in No. 10.
The new poll reveals that support for Starmer’s army has plummeted nine points in the survey with just over a quarter of Brits backing the government lot – while Nigel Farage’s Reform party has seen its support soar by ten points to leave it almost neck and neck with Labour. Kemi Badenoch’s Tories have lost two points, while the canvassing of 2,279 adults – carried out between 12-13 January – shows the Lib Dems and the Greens both gained one. How very interesting.
In a further blow for Sir Keir’s Starmtroopers, YouGov found that only half of those who backed Labour in the 2024 election would stick with the reds next time, with the Lib Dems, Tories and Reform looking to gain from disillusioned Labour voters. While five per cent of 2024 Labour voters would go with Reform next time, YouGov’s polling suggests Farage’s group could see as many as 15 per cent of Tory voters jump ship. Watch out Kemi…
And among the over 50s, it’s clear Sir Keir is struggling. Reform leads Labour by five points in the 50-64 age group, while Nige’s lot enjoy a whopping 16 point lead among those aged 65 years old and above. Labour certainly has its work cut out winning back that silver vote, eh?
While the survey won't make for pleasant reading in Downing Street, Mr S imagines the mood in Reform HQ will be rather more jubilant. With local elections are just around the corner, the surge in support for Farage's party bodes well – and is another confidence boost for Nige, who revealed this year he has prime ministerial ambitions for 2029. Will Reform continue to entice supporters away from its establishment rivals? Watch this space…
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