Nigel Farage has received a late Christmas present. According to figures released by Reform, his party has overtaken the Conservatives on the number of party members. The Reform party say it now has over 132,000 members. While the Tories don’t provide regular updates on their membership numbers, the recent Conservative party leadership contest suggested they are on around 131,680. Announcing the news, Farage described it as a ‘big, historic moment,’ adding that, ‘The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world. Reform UK are now the real opposition.’
Reform UK said they have today beaten the Tories in total membership.
— James Heale (@JAHeale) December 26, 2024
They now boast 131k – and projected it onto CCHQ
Farage: “The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world. Reform UK are now the real opposition.” pic.twitter.com/9cfKwylV4u
On hearing the news, Reform party chairman Zia Yusuf has repeated his prediction that Farage will be the next inhabitant of 10 Downing Street: ‘Nigel Farage will be the next prime minister, and will return Britain to greatness.’ To mark the occasion, Reform projected their membership figures onto the Conservative party’s headquarters in the middle of the night (some in the party had hoped to hit their target by Christmas day). The Tories say they had expected Reform to surpass them on members, though perhaps not quite as quickly as they have.
It comes after intense effort by Reform party to drive up membership. In one email sent out on Christmas day, Farage asked recipients ‘are you bored yet?’ before suggesting they ‘do something positive’ and join their growing movement. The party also brought in a special offer for young members – £10 for those aged 25 or under – which they say led to 1,000 young people joining in less than 48 hours.
The moment when Reform staffers really saw an uptick in sign-ups was the use of a live-counter claiming to show membership figures in in real-time. The counter was the subject of some scepticism over how it updated and the methodology. However, party sources say it is linked to card payments on joining and updates just under every minute.
So, how significant is this development? It certainly adds to a sense that the momentum is with the Reform party, especially as Keir Starmer struggles and Kemi Badenoch takes her time forming a clear opposition narrative. 2025 looks like it may well be Farage’s year, what with the return of Farage’s friend Donald Trump to the White House next month and the local elections in May (something I write about here).
Of course, a high number of members does not necessarily correlate with an election victory – look at Jeremy Corbyn’s time as Labour leader. Membership of the Labour party ballooned yet he failed to get to 10 Downing Street on two occasions, while it fell under Keir Starmer and yet he took his party into power.
At a time when both the Tories and the Labour party are looking over their shoulder nervously at Farage, it is reminder that the Reform party is not about to disappear anytime soon. What’s more, it shows how the party is determined to use the coming months to prove they are here to stay.
Katy Balls, James Heale and Patrick Maguire discuss the political outlook for 2025 on the latest Coffee House Shots podcast:
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