Before the war in Ukraine, ministers and Tory MPs believed a fixed penalty notice for the Prime Minister would mean the end of Boris Johnson. It would result in enough no-confidence letters from Tory MPs to trigger a leadership contest which would run into the summer. There would be a new Prime Minister in time for the party conference in the autumn.
But now the Prime Minister has been told he will be fined by Scotland Yard for attending parties during lockdown, no one is quite so sure. The reason? The circumstances around Johnson are changing.
Until now, stories about lockdown parties in No. 10 had been overshadowed by the Ukrainian crisis. Johnson has also impressed MPs and the party membership with his response. And most importantly, the man tipped to succeed him – his Downing Street neighbour Rishi Sunak – is fighting for his political survival. In a move that has taken many Tory MPs by surprise, the Chancellor, too, is to receive a fine – for being present when Johnson received a birthday cake in Downing Street during lockdown. ‘We’re at the omnishambles point of the crisis,’ says one Tory MP.
Even before this, MPs were having doubts about Sunak. As the cost-of-living crisis worsens, the Chancellor has been criticised for his wife’s non-dom tax status. His popularity has plummeted in the polls. ‘Rishi was the obvious person to take over if things went wrong and now he has had his wings clipped,’ says one senior Tory. If there is no obvious successor to Johnson, a leadership contest starts to lose its appeal. Cabinet ministers still popular with the membership include Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Defence Secretary Ben Wallace but there are doubts any candidate is ready to take over now. ‘We’ve gone into a world of deep murkiness now Rishi is wounded – it’s what gives Boris the opportunity to survive,’ says a senior conservative MP.
When Sunak was appointed in February 2020, many predicted he would be a ‘chancellor in name only’ and succumb to Johnson’s spending whims. This proved misguided. Sunak quickly built his own power base. He frequently puts his foot down to Johnson, which has led to tension. The Prime Minister – who prefers to be surrounded by ‘tired old lions’ who pose little threat – at one point even discussed demoting Sunak to health secretary.
At the peak of partygate, many MPs wondered if Sunak would resign and deal the killer blow to the Prime Minister. He didn’t. Now the Chancellor has lost the moral high ground. His fate is in Johnson’s hands. New revelations over Sunak’s use of a green card while in No. 11 have led to questions about how committed he is to the UK. ‘Why would you stay as an American resident? It suggests an otherness,’ says a member of government.
In the face of a public backlash over her non-dom status, Sunak’s wife Akshata Murthy has agreed to pay UK tax on her overseas earnings, and the Chancellor has referred himself to Johnson’s ethics adviser Lord Geidt over his financial affairs. While Sunak’s team are confident the investigation will confirm no wrongdoing, for some MPs the call for an inquiry which could prolong the saga just confirms their biggest concern: Sunak is not very good at politics.
‘He is trying to prove he broke no rules, but what Rishi doesn’t understand is that the rules he broke were political ones,’ says a party figure. ‘If there is a leadership election this year, he will find it exceptionally difficult to run,’ says a former minister. Sunak could still make life difficult for his neighbour – if he chooses to resign in light of the fine, it would set an unhelpful precedent for the Prime Minister. Johnson’s team have insisted he will stay in post regardless of a fixed penalty notice. ‘If Rishi quits, he would make the situation much worse for Boris,’ says one senior party figure.
Either way, Sunak’s political honeymoon was over before the fine was issued. MPs worry that he is not prepared for the scrutiny that comes with frontline politics and gets irritated too easily. ‘He’s not been treated like a normal politician over the past two years. He’s now finding out how the other ministers have it,’ says a government adviser. Sunak’s supporters had to deny rumours that he is considering resigning in light of stories about his wife’s tax affairs.
There are forces in the party who are quite happy to see Sunak knocked down a peg or two. Allies of the Chancellor have been quick to blame Downing Street for a co-ordinated attack to weaken him. While there’s no proof of this, the accusation shows the level of suspicion between the two sides. The recent appointment of the Sunak ally and former Treasury minister Steve Barclay as No. 10’s chief of staff has helped to repair ties, but only up to a point.
There are still plenty of Boris loyalists who regard the Chancellor as a threat. ‘Just look how long it took him to back the boss with parties,’ says one ally of Johnson. One cabinet minister complains that the Treasury can be too controlling: ‘Rishi needs to learn to consult others with his views – he may be clever, but he doesn’t know everything.’ There are also backbenchers who resent Sunak’s rapid rise to the top and blame him for the national insurance hike.
Unsurprisingly, Labour spies an opportunity. ‘Rishi and Boris are more dysfunctional than Blair and Brown,’ claims one member of Keir Starmer’s team. ‘They at least had the same vision.’ In light of the fines, the Labour leader has called on them both to resign.
Despite the return of partygate, both parties agree that cost of living is now the biggest issue for voters. Starmer plans to lead on it. Labour aides say that in internal focus groups people are crying because they can’t pay their energy bills. In the eyes of the public, the blame could fall upon Sunak as much as Johnson.
If they both stay in post, could Johnson choose to move Sunak to another position? It’s a question ministers are asking. There are rumours of a reshuffle in the summer. It’s no great secret that the Prime Minister is frustrated with his Home Secretary Priti Patel and the slow progress on the issue of small boat crossings. ‘If he has a sense of humour, he’ll move Rishi to the Home Office,’ says a minister. The department has a reputation as a graveyard for ambitious politicians.
Given that the cost-of-living crisis is going to get worse, time away from the Treasury might not be such a bad thing for Sunak. Yet it would be risky for Johnson to lose his second chancellor in under three years. Not only could such a senior departure spook the markets at a time when the economy is in a fragile state, but to the fiscal conservatives still left in the Tory party, Sunak has come to represent responsible spending. Until recently he was regarded as an electoral asset – in the 2019 general election, when he was chief secretary to the Treasury and a relative unknown, he was sent out to speak for the government in some of the televised debates.
Labour believes its route to power will be by winning public trust on the economy. This has meant there has been a concerted effort to land attack lines on Sunak rather than just focus on Johnson. The announcement that the Chancellor will receive a fixed penalty notice is a gift for Labour. But Sunak’s weakened position over the past month means that the Prime Minister is safer than he would have been otherwise. No matter how bad things are, there is no consensus on who ought to replace him.
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