It never rains but it pours for Rishi Sunak. Less than an hour after Nigel Farage performed a shock U-turn, announcing he will not only stand for election but take over the leadership of the Reform party, YouGov has released its first MRP poll of the election campaign. It does not make pretty reading for the Tories. The MRP poll says that were an election held today, Labour would win back a whopping majority of 194 seats – a bigger landslide than 1997.
YouGov estimate that in, an election held now, Labour would win 422 seats in total and the Tories would be left with just 140 seats. Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats would boost their numbers to 48 seats. The SNP in Scotland would be reduced to just 17 seats. As for the Reform party, on the current polling they would have no seats – however, this poll was taken before Farage announced his return. Meanwhile, the Greens would double their intake to two MPs – including Bristol Central which would mean the shadow culture secretary Thangam Debbonaire loses her seat.
However, there are far more Tory big beasts at risk of losing their seat. According to this poll, the cabinet members who would be ousted include Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt (set to represent the Tories in Friday’s seven-party BBC debate) and Alex Chalk, the Justice Secretary.
Labour’s success would be nationwide: they’re on track to have more seats than the Conservatives in London, the East Midlands, the West Midlands, the e West, the North East, the South West and Yorkshire and the Humber. In Scotland, the party would win 34 seat, meaning a big Scottish Labour recovery and causing damage to the SNP.
So, what does this poll mean for the campaign? Of course it is just one MRP poll – more polls will follow. Today a More in Common MRP poll suggested that the Tories would have 180 MPs were an election called today, and Labour 382. The Tories have also taken the view for some time now that YouGov modelling is on the less flattering end of the spectrum, often projecting larger Labour leads than rivals. However, the clear trend from all the polls so far is that the Tories are heading for a historic loss and there is little time to narrow the polls.
When an MRP poll from Electoral Calculus broke on Friday night suggesting the Tories could go down to 68 MPs, it was so bad most in the party did not take it seriously. But YouGov is much harder to dismiss. It doesn’t help that many of the ministers who are predicted to lose their seat thought a summer election was a very bad idea.
It means the Conservatives are having a bad start to the first full week of campaigning since parliament was dissolved on Thursday. The hope will be that tomorrow’s ITV head-to-head debate will move the dial. The official line will be that there is only one poll that matters and it is not for several weeks yet. However, with the nightmare scenario of a Farage comeback now a reality and the polls showing the party is on course for severe losses, there is a chance that more Tory candidates start speaking out in the coming weeks – and the job of reducing losses ahead of 4 July becomes even harder.
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