When this week began, Newt Gingrich was the clear favourite to win tonight’s Florida primary. He’d just beaten Mitt Romney by 13 points in South Carolina and two new polls put him 8 to
9 points ahead in Florida. Momentum was on his side, Romney was facing criticism
over his tax returns, and he’d have two debates – his favourite campaigning medium – to press his advantage home. But – despite securing an endorsement from Herman Cain on Saturday – Gingrich now finds himself well behind Romney, and with just a 3 per cent chance of
victory, according to Nate Silver’s model (above).
Why the turnaround? Partly it’s down to advertising. Romney and the ‘Restoring Our Future’ Super PAC that supports him have spent over $15 million on ads, compared to Gingrich and ‘Winning Our Future’ who’ve ‘only’ spent around $4 million.
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