With all the crises coming down the track, the Union has not received as much attention as it should in the Tory leadership contest. But given that the October supreme court hearing on the Scottish government’s plan for another independence referendum will push the issue right back up the agenda, the candidates should be thinking about it more.
As I say in the Times today, the new prime minister will be the fourth that Sturgeon has dealt with as first minister. Whoever wins should follow three rules in dealing with her. First, they should not allow her to treat them as some kind of foreign visitor when they come to Scotland. They should avoid a trip to Bute House, where Sturgeon stands in front of a saltire and they a Union Jack, as if they are some overseas head of government.
In October it will seem odd that Sturgeon wants to talk about independence, not one of the most difficult winters in living memory
One veteran of Johnson’s Downing Street recalls how Johnson was ambushed at Bute House on his first visit to Scotland as PM. He was booed by protesters as he arrived, and forced to leave by the back door, while Sturgeon got the pictures she wanted. This figure recommends a ‘low-key office environment’ for the new PM’s first meeting. They must also make sure that they visit Scotland so often that their presence there is no more remarkable than if they were in Cornwall.
Second, they should emphasise that now is not the time for a referendum, rather than getting sucked into a debate about how long a generation is. In October it will seem odd to those who remain undecided on the constitutional question that Sturgeon wants to talk about independence, not how to get through what will be one of the most difficult winters in living memory. The contrast with a UK government that is funding energy support packages will be stark.
Third, they should always look as though they are the ones who want to work together. The voters in Scotland who will decide the Union’s future want to see both the UK government and the devolved government co-operating. Given the severity of the challenges everyone will be facing in the coming months, this sense is only going to grow.
The SNP — who have been in power for 15 years now — have lost some momentum since their failure to win an outright majority in last year’s Holyrood election. This makes it all the more important that the new prime minister does not, unintentionally, inject new energy into the nationalist cause.
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