When David Cameron sits down for lunch with Nicolas Sarkozy today, he is bound to ask
his host how the presidential election is going. In response, President Sarkozy is likely to break into one his wide-faced smiles, and begin moving about energetically, as he tends to do when he is
excited. Forget the polls that put Francois Hollande ahead in a two-way race. It is too early to tell what people really think and, crucially, it won’t be a two-person race. It is a five-person,
two-round election. And so far, Sarkozy is doing very well.
Besides Sarkozy and Hollande, four other candidates could make a difference to the outcome: Marine Le Pen, François Bayrou, Eva Joly and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Each one could rob the Sarkozy and Hollande of the top spot in the first round.
That’s why there is more talk of a post-election coalition in Paris, where I’ve been visiting this week, than ever before. Sarkozy began by reaching out to Bayrou and now Hollande has done the same. Both seem to be promising that he can be a minister in a new government, possibly even the prime minister. A Sarkozy-Bayrou “ticket” is particularly difficult to comprehend: few people can have been so rude to each other over the years. Hollande-Bayrou, however, may be politically logical but not very exciting.
The euro crisis provides another reason to discard the early polls. Sarkozy has emerged as stronger and more statesman-like from the crisis. He has cut back on TV appearances, become more presidential and found that giving weighty speeches and thoughtful TV addresses pays off: his last TV address saw his poll numbers jump by 8 points. Hollande, meanwhile, has never held a government job, so is vulnerable to the charge that in a time of national and international crisis France would be led by a governmental beginner.
A few months ago, everyone thought Sarkozy was headed for the dustbin. Today, he looks like he could be re-elected.
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