As the hours tick down to polling day, Scottish nationalists are beginning to assess the damage this election campaign has inflicted on the cause of Scottish independence. Far from being a springboard to a second independence referendum, as Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf had forecast, it looks set to draw a line under the wave of Scottish nationalism that has dominated Scottish politics for most of the last two decades as the SNP’s new leader, John Swinney fails to stop the party’s relentless slide in voter support.
If the SNP leader is living the dream his party looks set to inherit the nightmare
It’s a hard lesson in the vicissitudes of politics. As recently as November 2022, the former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, still riding high in the polls, claimed the SNP could win a majority of votes and seats in Scotland in this 2024 general election – for the first time since the Tories did the double in 1955. She said this would constitute a ‘de facto referendum’ and would trigger independence negotiations with Westminster. That looks ludicrously optimistic now.
Even John Swinney’s amended forecast that a majority of seats would launch ‘negotiations with Westminster’ now looks like the rashest hostage to fortune. The SNP is in line to return 18 MPs on Thursday against Labour’s 28. If this were a de facto referendum on any franchise, then clearly the SNP has lost it. At least, that’s what unionist party leaders will be saying loud and clear on Friday morning.
But if it’s a historic set-back on the road to national liberation, it would be hard to tell from John Swinney’s demeanour in the past week. Jo Biden could do with a dose of whatever the FM is on. Swinney has been beaming with positivity and vigour as he parades around Scotland – in an SNP- yellow sports car wearing yellow-framed shades like a presbyterian version of Miami Vice. Brought out of retirement to fight this election, Swinney seems determined to make the most of it.
But if the SNP leader is living the dream his party looks set to inherit the nightmare. Election strategists in the SNP had hoped that the threat of a Starmer supermajority would be enough to bring back some disillusioned nationalist voters. After all, the adage that Westminster only listens to Scotland when it votes SNP is a pretty sound one. But those voters haven’t been tempted back.
Yet Keir Starmer’s recent pronouncements on tax, immigration and Brexit certainly haven’t chimed with what are usually supposed to be Scotland’s progressive sensibilities. This may be why the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, has now dangled the prospect of Scotland having a more liberal immigration policy than the rest of the UK. One of the less remarked upon failings of the past 17 years of SNP government has been the paucity of migrants coming to Scotland, despite chronic skill shortages in areas like social care. Net migration to the UK in 2022 was 745,000 but only 20,000 migrants came north, for reasons that aren’t entirely reducible to the weather.
But if anyone thinks Keir Starmer is going to give the Scottish parliament control over immigration they have another think coming. He’s not likely to offer a back-door via Scotland. Even Anas Sarwar says immigration overall is too high.
However, UK Labour are in the market for offering concessions to Scotland, if only to assist Anas Sarwar in translating this week’s expected victory into success in the Scottish parliamentary elections in 2026. Labour is currently third in Holyrood in terms of seats, after the Tories. Gordon Brown will no doubt be pushing his plans for turning the House of Lords into a Senate elected by the nations and regions. Though Starmer has avoided any mention of this in the past week.
What Starmer will definitely not be offering is a repeat referendum on independence. In fact he refuses to discuss the matter – for a very good reason. There is precious little demand for any kind of referendum in Scotland right now. Indeed, in this general election campaign the steam has evaporated from the entire independence movement.
Leaving the UK now comes far down the priorities of Scottish voters after health, cost of living, and education. In the latest YouGov poll, independence even came behind immigration, which is remarkable given that this has rarely been a key issue in Scottish politics. Perhaps Scotland is not so immune to Nigel Farage’s politics as everyone thought. Indeed, Reform is currently polling level with the Scottish Liberal Democrats and could overtake them on Thursday night.
That would be the supreme irony of this election. The Scottish National party, icon of progressive internationalism, plunges to defeat as national populism gets a foothold in Scottish politics. It is a hard message for supporters of independence. Indeed, the Union, written off but so many only a few years ago, looks almost as safe as it ever has been in the past 300 years.
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