Foreign-trained horses are often overpriced when they come on raids to Britain, particularly when they are housed with the smaller stables. This may well be the case again tomorrow when I expect horses from the other side of the English Channel to make their mark on Champions Day at Ascot.
Several French handlers will be looking for revenge from two weekends ago when the home trainers went down by eight wins to three against their British and Irish counterparts in feature races over ‘Arc weekend’ at Longchamp.
The more rain that falls tomorrow, the better for the Jerome Reynier-trained FACTEUR CHEVAL in the Group 1 Qipco Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile (Ascot, 3.15 p.m.). The five-year-old gelding is a real mudlark as he proved when second in this race a year ago – admittedly well-beaten – behind Big Rock.
He has the likes of Charyn, Tamfana and Henry Longfellow to beat tomorrow but the official ratings give him a good chance of doing just that and the likely soft, even heavy, ground will be a big plus. Back him each way at 9-1 with Bet365, William Hill or Coral, all paying three places.
It is likely that the most popular French horse to back tomorrow will be Calandagan even though he has William Haggas’s Economics to beat in the Group 1 Qipco Champion Stakes (Ascot 3.55). Haggas thinks Economics will handle the likely very soft ground but we know that Calandagan will act on it and so he is perhaps the more likely winner of this 10 furlongs contest.
However, given that both horses are likely to go off at around 6-4, I prefer to look for a bit of each way value in the form of Owen Burrows’ lightly-raced ANMAAT. Admittedly the six-year-old gelding was disappointing when he was only fifth of the seven runners when sent off favourite for the Group 2 Qatar Prix Dollar two weeks ago at Longchamp.
However, that race was not run to suit him and he is surely better than that. Back Anmaat each way at 28-1 with William Hill, BetVictor or Ladbrokes, all paying three places. Anmaat is not guaranteed to want the ground like a bog but at the price it is worth the risk.
In the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes (Ascot, 2.35 p.m.), I like the chances of the German-trained QUANTANAMERA. If her win over Arrest in a Group 2 event at Deauville at the end of August can be taken at face value, she is a very smart four-year-old filly because she pulled four lengths clear of John and Thady Gosden’s horse Arrest on soft ground that day.
Quantanamera will have her favoured conditions again tomorrow and so back her each way at 10-1 with Ladbrokes, paying three places, rather than taking the shorter odds with bookies paying more places.
Tomorrow’s superb six-race card gets under way with the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (1.20 p.m.). Kyprios, who is unbeaten in six starts this season, is the most likely winner and quite rightly the odds-on favourite having consistently beaten most of his fancied rivals.
However, if there is an improving young horse that could provide a shock result, it is the James Owen-trained BURDETT ROAD. The four-year-old gelding annihilated a decent field in a listed race over a mile and a half at Newmarket last time out, suggesting he might well have the stamina for this near two-mile event.
Tomorrow’s Group 2 is a step up in class but at the odds Burdett Road is a tempting bet. Back him each way at 28-1 with BetVictor, paying three places.
As usual the last race on the card, the Qipco-sponsored Balmoral Handicap (Ascot 4.35 p.m.) is a fiendishly difficult 20-runner handicap to solve. Last year, with the meeting run on soft ground, low numbers were favoured and I am hoping the same is the case tomorrow.
BOPEDRO, who will come out of stall 3, has run 13 times this season without winning and so he is proving expensive to follow. At eight years old, David O’Meara’s consistent gelding may not be quite the force of old either.
However, despite those negatives, there was plenty to like about his last run when third to Volterra at Ascot in the BetMGM Challenge Cup two weeks ago. Bopedro looked to be crying out for another furlong that day and he will get it tomorrow when he races over a mile rather than seven furlongs. Back Bopedro each way with Sky Bet, and at the Starting Price (SP) because I would hope he will go off at bigger than the current 11-1.
It goes against the grain to put up another horse in the Balmoral who has yet to do himself justice this season but I can’t resist going in double-handed in the race on CARRYTHEONE. Far too often in big races, Michael Bell’s seven-year-old gelding has either met trouble in running or arrived on the scene too late to win. In short, he is not one for the mortgage.
However, one mile on soft ground at Ascot are definitely his favoured conditions and, with French maestro Christophe Soumillon in the saddle, this could finally be his big day. Back Carytheone, who is drawn in stall 5, each way also with Sky Bet, paying seven places, and again at SP.
The Group 1 Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (1.55 p.m.) is another hugely competitive 20-runner affair and I am going to leave it alone. Make no mistake: Ascot is staging one of the very best day’s racing of the whole year tomorrow so enjoy every minute of it.
Pending:
1 point each way Burdett Road at 28-1 in the Long Distance Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Quantanamera at 10-1 in the Fillies and Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Facteur Cheval at 9-1 in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Anmaat at 28-1 in the Champion Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Bopedro at SP in the Balmoral Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places.
1 point each way Carrytheone at SP in the Balmoral Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 7 places.
Last three weekends: – 10 points.
1 point each way Hyperfocus at 9-1 forthe Haydock 3.15 p.m. tomorrow, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Bopedro at 20-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 33-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Al Riffa at 14-1 for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Premiere Ligne at 33-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total – 3.8 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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