Patrick O’Flynn Patrick O’Flynn

Starmer faces a difficult summer

(Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)

Like Covid data, polling data has a built-in time lag of several days. Those sifting the evidence on coronavirus typically expect to see about a four-day lag between someone becoming infected and them showing up as a positive case after getting tested. Indeed, the Financial Times has just produced a graph showing distinct Covid case spikes among young men four days after every England football match in the recent European championships.

Opinion pollsters would recognise a similar lag when it comes to events that influence the standing of parties. It takes time for those events to percolate through the public consciousness.

So the latest rash of opinion polls, which are often referred to as a ‘snapshot’ of the public mood, actually reflect the public mood at the tail end of last week rather than right now. This amounts to ominous news for Keir Starmer, who may today be confusing himself with someone successful.

The narrowing of the Conservative lead over Labour from 10 to 12 points to two to three points can be traced to a woeful week for the Tories. That week involved the party enraging its natural supporters via the pingdemic, Boris Johnson attempting to exempt himself and Rishi Sunak from the same, stories about Covid passports and the daily spectacle of hundreds of irregular migrants landing on the coast of southern England.

But the opposition party’s failure to secure a single rating of 40 per cent or more is also telling. This is much more of a Tory slide than a Labour bounce. And something has happened since those snapshots were taken that I predict may reverse it.

This easing of the pandemic ought to form the basis of a Tory poll recovery

On Monday 19 July, Starmer put out a video clip headlined: ‘Boris Johnson’s recklessness means we’re going to have an NHS summer crisis.

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in