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The Labour conference in Liverpool was a curiously upbeat affair. Much of the good spirit came from schadenfreude at the misadventures of Andy Burnham. The Mayor of Greater Manchester scuttled out of Liverpool just before Keir Starmer’s speech, having united the party in mutual contempt at his posturing in recent days.
‘A fucking clown’ was the verdict of an ex-cabinet minister. ‘He did an Eric Heffer,’ remarked one Labour official – a reference to the cantankerous Liverpool MP who stormed out of Neil Kinnock’s conference speech 40 years ago. ‘It was the worst coup attempt since South Korea,’ says a former aide. Burnham, however, is merely a symptom, not a cause of Labour’s woes. Serious rivals are unlikely to telegraph their ambitions quite so blatantly.
Starmer knows that the question of his leadership is unlikely to disappear. His model for re-election is his Australian counterpart, the Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who appeared on the first day of the conference. Labour’s thinking is straightforward: frame the next election as a presidential contest and beat the populist right with a humble left-wing grafter. Starmer’s problem is that others take inspiration from elsewhere. Some look to Canada, where the unpopular Justin Trudeau was axed before the election, allowing Mark Carney to present the Liberals as a refreshed political force. Others look at America, where the failure to remove Joe Biden swiftly condemned the Democrats.
Starmer’s cabinet clapped vigorously from the front row at his conference speech but are privately wracked with doubts. Much of the frustration comes from the constant chop and change of political strategy. ‘I agree with what Keir said today,’ said one MP afterwards in the bar of the conference’s main hotel. ‘But who’s to say we don’t change course, just like Island of Strangers?’ The Prime Minister’s aides spent much of the summer working on his hour-long speech. One likens the drafting of the 6,500-word exercise to ‘Test cricket – it finds you out’.
Meanwhile Lucy Powell is nailed on to win the deputy leadership race in three weeks’ time, a fact acknowledged even by supporters of Bridget Phillipson. Powell’s expected triumph is not down to any great strategy on her behalf, other than not being the preferred candidate of No. 10. ‘Lucy was the one cabinet minister he properly sacked last month,’ points out an older MP. ‘And now the membership has voted to restore her. What does that say about his judgment?’ It is a critique that was echoed in the bars and fringe events by increasingly assertive new MPs. After a torrid 15 months, they are less inclined to give the leadership the benefit of the doubt. Some complain about the newly revamped whips’ office, now stuffed with close allies of Morgan McSweeney, the No. 10 chief of staff.
Starmer’s cabinet clapped
vigorously from the front row but are privately wracked with doubts
Then there is the Budget, where Rachel Reeves must find around £30 billion to restore her fiscal headroom. Extending the freeze on the income tax threshold could cover a third of this figure – but tax rises elsewhere are inevitable. In Starmer’s conference speech he acknowledged the impact of his tax changes on business, telling the private sector: ‘We asked a lot of you.’ But few corporate types expect relief.
That said, one idea under consideration is the Resolution Foundation’s proposal to raise income tax while reducing national insurance. That would shift the burden from employers on to the workers. Gambling taxes are set to rise, at the urging of Gordon Brown. The former PM’s latest crusade is said to be motivated by high moral principle – though some suspect there is an element of New Labour psychodrama too. Michael Dugher, his former aide, now runs the Betting and Gaming Council and will lead the charge against Brown’s tax demands.
Among the gloomiest attendees at conference were the Welsh Labour mob. Half the party’s sitting members of the Senedd are standing down in May, ahead of an expected bloodbath at the elections. For 100 years, Labour has won every devolved and general election in Wales. Now, Starmer is on course to come third. ‘Stop Reform doesn’t work where you’ve got another choice in Plaid,’ argues one aide. Another complains that the attitude of Westminster colleagues evokes Lord Farquaad, the diminutive tyrant in Shrek: ‘Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice that I’m willing to make.’
Hanging over all this is the single greatest question of British politics: how do you stop Nigel Farage? It was left to David Lammy, the newly anointed Lord Chancellor, to offer the perfect encapsulation of the progressives’ dilemma. ‘I’m not going to play the man, I’m playing the ball,’ he grandly told broadcasters – five seconds before accusing Farage of having ‘flirted with Hitler Youth’. A retraction followed shortly thereafter. Within Reform, such remarks are being used as motivational fuel ahead of May. Next month’s Budget – with all its various tax horrors – is expected, in the words of one Reformer, to ‘only serve as rocket boosters’.
For now, the mood among ministers is ‘let’s make Keir work’, as one special adviser puts it. After a leader’s speech that drew heavily on workmanlike themes of building and delivery, it is no surprise that housing is seen as one of the major departments to watch in the coming months. The ‘breakout star of this conference’ was the new Housing Secretary Steve Reed, claimed one excitable MP. Such was the demand for his red ‘Build baby build’ caps that 1,300 were ordered. ‘I got a rare unsigned one,’ remarked one member dryly. In a party that is starved of optimism the Yimby movement – Yes in my back yard – offers a way of energising activists and placating Whitehall’s bean counters.
Sadly for Starmer, such solutions are in short supply. At conference, he bought himself time – but can he use it? Away from the cheering faces, happy smiles and glutinous praise of party workers, he will have to work hard to turn it around. Liverpool was, as a Tory grandee once said, just a ‘holiday from reality’.
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