A year ago today, Rishi Sunak called the general election. Watching the rain-drenched prime minister struggling to deliver his speech, it seemed like the inglorious end to an unremarkable premiership. But 12 months on, the decisions Sunak took in office continue to yield results. This morning, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that net migration fell to 431,000 in 2024 – down almost 50 per cent on the previous year’s total.
Overall, some 948,000 people came to the UK in 2024, down almost a third on the previous year
That is thanks primarily to the package of measures which Sunak and James Cleverly, his Home Secretary, introduced at the end of 2023. These followed significant pressure from parts of the Conservative party, led by Robert Jenrick. Reforms included hiking the salary threshold for foreign workers and removing the right of overseas care workers to bring dependants. The ONS confirms the drop is ‘driven by falling numbers of people coming to work and study, particularly student dependants.’ There were 17 per cent fewer applications to study here across the 12-month period.
Overall, some 948,000 people came to the UK in 2024, down almost a third on the previous year. Total long-term emigration rose too, jumping 11 per cent to 517,000 over the year. Worryingly, among them will have been a hefty chunk of high earners: the New World Wealth firm estimates that a millionaire is currently leaving the UK every 45 minutes. The most striking fall occurred among non-EU nationals coming here for work: the ONS says that numbers fell by 49 per cent on the previous year. Health and social care visas are down 85 per cent on their 2023 peak too.
Of course, others will want to claim credit for the drop in numbers. Labour pledged during the election to bring down net migration, though they refused to give a target number. Their own plans – announced last week – will build on Sunak and Cleverly’s work. The government’s measures include ending all care worker visas, increasing English language requirements and raising the threshold for someone arriving on a skilled work visa. These should mean total net migration is around 300,000 by the time of the next election.
The current numbers are still much higher than the ‘tens of thousands’ which David Cameron promised a decade ago. But they suggest that the post-pandemic surge in people moving – after 18 months of the globe being in lockdown – has largely abated. Yvette Cooper and Keir Starmer will never say it, but they owe Rishi Sunak and James Cleverly a vote of thanks for this one.
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