How far will the Labour government’s European reset go? This is the question being asked in Westminster as Keir Starmer embarks on a Brussels charm offensive. On Sunday, the Prime Minister met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, with the pair citing Donald Trump’s tariff war (launched over the weekend) as a reason why it’s a ‘good moment’ for the UK and the EU to improve relations.
Next, Starmer travels to Brussels today where he will become the first UK prime minister since Brexit to attend an EU summit. Starmer will join for the evening dinner along with 27 leaders. Technically, the meal is being billed as a discussion on defence and security but the general sense is that it is a key meeting as Labour politicians try to push for a new Brexit deal sooner rather than later.
Since entering 10 Downing Street, Starmer and his team have been talking up the need to improve relations with the EU. They are even happy to use the word ‘reset’ – a word ministers are squeamish about using when it comes to their attempts to build ties with Beijing. Initially Starmer’s reset focused on improving the mood music between the UK and Brussels after years of Brexit barbs. But now ministers are hoping to agree to a wider deal that would see closer cooperation on trade, fisheries and youth mobility. In Downing Street there is an appetite to move quickly and agree a deal before the year is out.
The reason is twofold. First, a large driver of the reset is Rachel Reeves’s pursuit of economic growth. Given this is a major struggle for the government (not least thanks to the Chancellor’s tax-raising Budget last year), closer relations with the EU is regarded by many within the party as an easy win. However, it does risk a political backlash if it looks as though the UK is undoing Brexit or ceding important things in pursuit of a deal. By moving quickly the hope is that the economy will improve by the time of the next election, so ministers are able to explain why a deal was worth it come polling day.
So, what might the UK have to cede to Brussels to get a deal over the line? Security and defence is seen as the easiest area to agree closer cooperation – with both sides viewing this as a common-sense step. The UK ‘red lines’ include not rejoining the single market, customs union or restoring free movement. However, given the UK government’s lack of appetite to diverge from EU regulations, there could end up being something that looks and sounds like a customs union but is called something else. Fishing rights are an issue where various EU countries have demands that could prove politically difficult for the government. The most troublesome issue is likely to be youth mobility. EU diplomats have spoken of their desire for a scheme that could allow the young to travel, study and work freely in the UK and EU. However, there are fears in Labour that this could be seen as some form of freedom of movement so it is the issue No. 10 is most cagey about.
The bet in government is that closer relations will lead to economic growth – the so-called ‘defining mission’ in government that trumps all else. But there are likely to be complications. First off, the pivot comes at a time when Trump may impose tariffs on the EU but not the UK. Will closer relations make it harder for the UK to stay neutral? Second, the EU has shown in the past that it doesn’t like to be bounced into quickly negotiating or ‘cherry-picking’. That means any deal will come with political risk. At a time when the Reform party is making gains, Starmer could hand Nigel Farage a list of attack lines for the next election.
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