When Keir Starmer gave his first Downing Street press conference last weekend, he warned that ‘tough decisions’ were coming shortly. The first of these is expected later today. The new Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to announce plans to ease prison overcrowding in England and Wales. That plan is expected to involve prisoners being released early, including some convicted of violent offences. The proposal is that some inmates on fixed sentences will be released after serving 40 per cent of their sentences, rather than the usual 50 per cent. However, there will be some exemptions – with certain crimes meaning that inmates are not eligible for early release.
The backdrop to this is the number of prison places currently available: around 700. The view in Whitehall is that if this goes down to 300 spare places, jails can no longer accept arrivals from courts and the whole system starts to break down. There are warnings that without action, there could be riots over the summer or looting on the streets as would-be criminals worked out they could act without much risk of being locked up. Mahmood is expected to make theses points in a speech from a prison today as she explains the decision.
Of course, the political risk is that Labour looks as though it is soft on crime by releasing prisoners en masse
Of course, the political risk is that Labour looks as though it is soft on crime by releasing prisoners en masse. It’s why Mahmood and Starmer will try to paint this as a Tory inheritance. There is something in that – Sunak’s team were open about the fact they ran the prisons system hot. Under Sunak, Downing Street repeatedly delayed the Sentencing Bill – pushed by the Ministry of Justice – which would have suspended short sentences of 12 months for fear of a backbench rebellion on the right of the party. Concerns that civil servants could work with like-minded Tories and opposition figures to force Sunak’s hand was one of the factors behind the decision to go for a July election.
So, does Mahmood risk a backlash of her own by doing what her predecessor was not willing to? The argument she will make is that only by releasing are you able to keep arresting: therefore it is the most palatable option out of a range of pretty unpalatable choices. If prisoners are released early and go on to commit crimes then she will come under further pressure, and Labour will repeat the charge that this is a Tory mess. But the most divisive Labour decision could be coming later down the track. This is a situation the new government has to deal with, but there are strong hints that Starmer takes the view too many people are in prison full stop.
The decision to appoint James Timpson – the businessman and owner of the key-cutting chain – suggests that a much wider shake up of the prisons system could be coming. As I write in this week’s cover piece, he’s on record praising the Dutch example where a third of prisoners were released and Labour has already announced that it is considering releasing inmates after they’ve served 40 per cent of their sentence. As one Whitehall figure puts it: ‘Timpson would not take the job unless serious change was planned on prisoner release and rehabilitation.’ Such a move would not be able to be blamed on Tory inheritance – it would be a decision for Starmer to own.
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