One of the trickiest decisions that Gordon Brown has to make is when to call the Glenrothes byelection. As Martin Kettle points out in The Guardian this morning, Labour can have the poll on any Thursday between September 11 and December 4—so either before conference or once the Autumn re-launch is under way.
A byelection loss in Fife (and as Matt noted on Wednesday a Labour defeat is, at the moment, the most likely result) will be hugely embarrassing for Brown and will weaken his position still further, if Labour under Brown can’t win in Fife where can it win?
A defeat before conference could persuade the party that however much it dislikes playing assassin it really does have to get rid of Brown. However, as Kettle argues, delaying and then losing in Glenrothes would kill off any momentum that Labour might pick up from the set of populist announcements that are expected to be rolled out from conference onwards.
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