We know that George Osborne’s first Tory majority Budget is going to be big. It will be far bigger than the announcements that have been briefed so far, that’s for sure. What we know so far is as follows.
There will be £12bn of welfare cuts, but they will be implemented over three years, rather than two. Those cuts will take in tax credits, including child tax credit, which is expected to be limited to two children, employment support allowance and housing benefit. And the Independent reports that the Chancellor will also replace student maintenance grants with loans. Fraser explains why the Chancellor has changed his timetable on the welfare cuts here.
Osborne has also spent the past few days arguing that his preference is to spend less on welfare and take less from people in taxes, so the thresholds for the lowest rate of tax and the 40p band will rise, but the Chancellor is not expected to lower the 45p rate of tax for those earning more than £150,000.
He is also expected to make big announcements on devolution, his favourite Northern Powerhouse, transport and education.
The messaging this morning seems to be very combative, with the Chancellor speaking of the ‘predictable howls of protest’ from the Labour party in response to his welfare cuts. The challenge for Labour, of course, is to sound more nuanced than Osborne is expecting, something Harriet Harman might be able to manage in her speech, and something Chris Leslie might manage in his response over the coming days. But those two are not the sum total of the Labour party, nor are they trying to get attention in a leadership contest. Nor will they know what the bulk of this big Budget is until it is delivered.
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