Sunak vs Starmer: the race is on

There’s a new rule for members of Keir Starmer’s team on their WhatsApp group: no messages linking to opinion polls. It’s not because the Labour leader dislikes the figures. Labour polls consistently on about 45 per cent and the Tories on 25 per cent, which is landslide victory territory. The fear is that too much focus on such numbers will breed complacency. ‘We are a party scarred by its losses,’ says a member of Starmer’s office.

Yet with the election expected next year, Labour and Tory MPs are talking less about whether Rishi Sunak can turn things around and more about the scale of Starmer’s victory. Will Labour have a majority of 20 or 200? It’s rare to find any MP, on any bench, who believes the Tories will win a fifth term.

Before he was whisked into No. 10 to become political secretary to the Prime Minister, James Forsyth warned in this column about a perfect storm gathering for the Tories this winter. Rampant inflation, recession, strikes, a losing battle on immigration, and a health service that could fall down at any moment (if it has not started to do so already). This would be a huge challenge for any party in power, let alone one already struggling to hold on to its support base.

When Sunak entered No. 10 he promised to provide ‘stability’ after the Liz Truss drama, but some Tories are already complaining that his team is too timid. Neither Sunak nor Starmer has yet managed to convey to the public what exactly they stand for. Both intend to start the new year by correcting that with speeches this week.

Starmer’s team feel they have announced plenty of policy ideas (charge VAT on school fees, abolish non-dom status), but there still needs to be a more general sense of what Labour would do differently.